Summary : with no growth at all we can expect a revenue of 75.97 - 79.85 Billion dollars for Q4 of 2018.
amazon AMZN is reporting its Q4 2018 quarterly report at market close on Thursday January 31st 2019. look at the below table found here . this is from form 10-Q found on page 20. this below is table 1 in this post.
For Physical stores line number 2 in 2017 for both 3 months ending and 9 months ending Septemnber sales were 1,276 Million dollars. Why? On page 4 of the annual report
"Our business is affected by seasonality, which historically has resulted in higher sales volume during our fourth quarter, which ends December 31. We recognized 33%, 32%, and 34% of our annual revenue during the fourth quarter of 2015, 2016, and 2017. Fourth quarter 2017 results include revenue attributable to Whole Foods Market, which we acquired on August 28, 2017."
Now look at Net sales for the year ending 2017 in the following table found here on page 69 of form 10K
this below is table 2 in this post
In the above table, it would not escape your attention that Amazon had 0 dollars sales in 2015 and 2016 and year ending 2017 it is 5,798 Million dollars for physical stores sales.
Now in the first table 1 by the 9 months ending September 2018 the sales in Physical stores is 12,824 Million US Dollars
Just 9 months sales growth has increased by 121 %! this is better than the advertising segment growth (the other ) which is just 6,720 million from table 1. 2015 to 2016 - the other advertisement segment grew 72.5 % and then from 2017-2018 it grew by 57.7 % but for first 9 month of 2018 it grew by 44.4 % compared to entire 2017.
Physical stores sales for Holiday season 2018 is going to add billions of dollars since amazon released here
Amazon today announced a record-breaking holiday season thanks to its customers all around the world, with more items ordered worldwide than ever before. Amazon customers shopped at record levels from a wide selection of products across every department, discovering top holiday gifts and trending products offered at deep discounts and low prices. Some of the best-selling products this season included, all-new Echo Dot, L.O.L. Surprise! Glam Glitter Series Doll, fashion items from Carhartt, and Bose QuietComfort Wireless Headphones, among others.
So from table 1 we have net sales for 9 months ending 2018 is 160,504 million US dollars. Now last quarter revenue was 56,576. let's just for fun add them both. we get revenue based on no growth whatsoever 217,080 million us dollars. Now if around 35 % of annual revenue is got from 4th quarter. then without any growth Q4 revenue would be 35 % of 217, 080 which is equal to 75,978 million us dollars!
Now lets assume very reasonably for revenue growth comparing Q4 quarter 2017 to Q4 quarter 2018 of a growth of 32 % (Q4 2017 to Q4 2016 was 38.3 %) then we get revenue of 79.86 Billion in Q4 of 2018
CFO Brian Olsavsky of Amazon said this "We did the Souq acquisition last year in May. So the full pick-up on that year-over-year was in 2017 and now we're lapping that. There's also material change in the Diwali calendar in India. About half of our Diwali sales last year were in Q3. This year they'll be fully in Q4."
Divali or deepavali is a huge festival in India. Sales are around 2-3 billion dollars (actual figures for 2018 are not known )
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Disclosure: I am/we are long AMZN.
Additional disclosure: I have a call option on AMZN