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The Dollar/Euro - S&P 500 Ouija Board, at Your Service

Seeing as technical support and resistance levels often provide good short-term "guideposts" in times of market confusion (even if only because "everyone else" is watching them), let's play a little "Ouija Board Technical Mumbo Jumbo"...

It's pretty obvious that today's rise in the dollar managed to turn what started out as a massive up-move in stocks into a mild up-move by the close (and actually negative intra-day for a while).

At day's end, the DXY closed above its 50-day EMA for the first time since April, and the EUR/USD (for the first truly definitive time since April) closed BELOW its 50-day EMA. If the dollar can continue this strength, the next resistance I see on the DXY chart is the 200-day EMA, which would be around a 3% move up from today's close. A 3% gain in the dollar vs. the Euro would correspond to the Euro being around 1.44. Interestingly, the 200-day EMA (which is the next support level, now that the 50-day EMA has been broken) for the Euro/USD chart is also 144. (This probably speaks to how heavily weighted the Euro is in the DXY.)

Now, here's the real Ouja Board stuff:

The last time EURO/USD was 1.44 was September 7th and 8th, when the S&P closed between 1016 and 1025. It just so happens that the 200-day EMA for the S&P is currently 1012 and it's moving up a bit over a point a day, which means that it should be at the low end of that range (1016) by Wednesday. Seeing as that (the 200-day EMA) is a major technical support level, if the dollar bounce continues (and we'll have a good idea about this Sunday night/Monday morning), I think there's a non-trivial (lol, I love that phrase-- "non-trivial"-- it sounds so scientific in the middle of this Ouija Board analysis) possibility of seeing somewhere around 1020 on the S&P 500 at some point in the next 10 trading days.