There are no new short or long positions for Monday. I do have a couple of possible early longs. For the second day in a row, OPEN could be a possible long and CSU could be also if you don’t mind the very short base and it being too far away from the 50 day moving average. I only invest when I know I have odds in my favor of winning. This market combined with those charts do not give me that “know.” Overall this market is clearly under some major distribution. I do not have any opinions about how the market should act in the future or the current. To me it is always “it is what it is” and nothing more. I operate on facts. Facts are clearly showing me that something is really wrong in the stock market. Hell, as crazy as some reasons for why the market went up or down are I will one up them with why I think we have had all these distribution days since January. I think the stock market predicted the Japan earthquake and tsunami. Does that sound retarded? Well it shouldn’t. The ideas that are given on television and newspapers every single day are just as ignorant and as haphazard as the one I just gave for why we are selling off. The truth is I don’t know why and neither does anyone else. The facts are some big money funds that have been buying stocks since the March 2009 rally are now clearly dumping them onto a public that is just now noticing we have been in a two year bull run. The public always jumps on the ship late. We are down 1.82% on the Nasdaq since the first clear distribution day on 1/19/11. Since 1/18/11 we have racked up 11 clear distribution days with seven of them being very large. The volume on the downside during these days is just destroying any accumulation we have seen during that time. During this time we have also watched those leaders of the bull market get dumped on huge volume, bear market sectors rotate to the top of the industry group charts, and have seen ad naseum “buy the dips” references in the media. We have now also seen the indexes crack the 50 day moving average on very strong volume and start a clear lower highs and lower lows downtrend. Why in the hell anyone would fight the overall market trend now (or ever!!) is beyond me. The market is clearly telling us the best gains have been had. The smart thing for new investors to do is nothing here. That means you will not churn your account lower and/or lose money. This will allow you to have more capital to put to work when the market turns higher again. If anyone has been a part of my website for any period of time you know I will know when that happens simply because I follow the charts and not the financial news or my opinion. I will never understand why new investors “need” to make money all the time. IT CAN’T BE DONE! You must realize sometimes the best bet is cash. Oh yeah, and if you think you can just short the market like I do and make money. It isn’t that easy. You need real hardcore bear markets to make a ton of money shorting. I will be happy just to beat the market as it sells off. If the market sells off 5%, 10%, or 25% and you have a 0% return or a 5% return, you just crushed the market. All we want to do is beat the market during the up and down swings. You do that, in time, you might be able to keep up with inflation. God knows you will NEVER be able to get rich again in the stock market. USA is dead. Get over it. Reality is not easy to swallow for most. It is for me.
new long positions: none
new short positions: none