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2 NFTRH Updates: Silver & Gold

|Includes: GDX, GDXJ, SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), GOEX, SLV

Monday afternoon an NFTRH email update went out on silver and Tuesday morning in pre-market, one was sent out about gold.  NFTRH is much more than a weekly letter, which I feel stands with any of its competitors.  Aside from timely updates about broad and specific markets, technical setups are highlighted on what I consider quality stock situations, and sometimes informal 'speaking' as letter writer to readers, happens as well.  I am just another lowly market participant, after all.

I notice guys giving stuff away out there in a routine manner and increasingly, I am backing away from that.  But here for you dear blog reader is free stuff, and it's pretty recent, too.  Do with it as you will but understand that this writer cares deeply about getting the markets right and also the financial well being of his subscribers.  He also cares deeply about not getting caught up with scared, greedy and stupid money knee jerking around out of emotion. 

I think everyone who reads this blog consistently should be a subscriber but then, I am biased I guess.  I don't tell people what to do but rather, what is brewing in the markets so that they can decide for themselves.  Often these exercises work to my advantage, as writing it all out with the weight of knowing that real people read and depend on these opinions, helps me get my own head in order.  I shorted both silver and gold against 'long and strong' precious metals positions.

NFTRH Update (August 22): Silver at target, etc.

I make no bones about the fact that I am a risk manager first, and risk taker second. Silver has come, for all intents and purposes, to our target at around 44. Therefore, I am cautious on it.

I have not yet decided whether to take some put or short position insurance out on this caution (against PM stocks and metals) and I am not going to send out a 'flash update' type of thing if I do. That is because shorting a favored asset class is a very personal - and dangerous thing. If you too are at all concerned or feel you are too heavily involved from the bull side, there is always the 'profit taking' option.

Silver can certainly go higher, but a target is a target and if the current rebound is just a reactionary rise off of the April crash, the equivalent of SLV 42-44 (see chart attached) could be as good as it gets for a while.

I know that sounds like crazy talk in the midst of a precious metals upside hysteria, but I would rather crazy talk now than be sorry I didn't, later.

Regardless, silver has retraced 62% of the crash and it will be interesting to see what develops now. HUI has kissed our upside parameter near 610, but not crossed above. Gold is accelerating and continuing to scare me. I am benefiting by what is happening there, but I am a bottom feeder and raw momentum makes me nervous. So I look on in dull fascination.

Price-wise, the gold miners are a value compared to the 'price' of the metal. We await information as to whether continued buying opportunity will come at a confirmed HUI 610+ or on some kind of a reaction downside.

Really, all I can definitively state is that silver has come to an upside target we have had open for many weeks now and HUI has come to our upside pivot point.

Regards,

Gary

NFTRH Update (August 23, pre-market): Gold

The talk is everywhere, even as the gold dealer ads on Fox become more densely rotated, the talk of a gold bubble does so as well (including at my own blog http://biiwii.blogspot.com/2011/08/gold-channel-buster-up-now-going.html).

I have marked up the chart from that post and attached it here. It shows gold proxy GLD's channel buster up and a likely path for correction and resumed bullishness. If gold is in a bubble - and I have long felt the precious metals bull market may end in bubble dynamics, with people chasing out of fear as opposed to the raw greed of the tech bubble for example - it, in my opinion, has significantly higher to go before anything resembling terminal activity comes about. In other words, a correction now would be a good and healthy thing - and it would alleviate my nervousness. ;-)

Back to the chart, using silver as a guide, it is likely that gold will take a correction to punish all the new and unhealthy holders; the 'knee jerks'. This could happen in conjunction with the expected stock market relief ('okay, everybody back in the pool!') as markets simply do their thing and wash and rinse the herds. If gold stocks are held within the HUI 610 limit, I would expect them to decline less than gold, if indeed gold is about to start a correction. A separate update or spotlight in NFTRH150 will highlight what I think are the likely scenarios in gold stocks on the basis of most to least probable.

So, back to the attached chart yet again, I would like to see gold correct back toward the channel and one or both of the moving averages (the weekly EMA 20 is currently at 1610, EMA 10 is 1697). If the silver chart is any kind of a reliable template, gold would go much higher after this correction. This would of course inversely fit with a scenario calling for broad market recovery, failure and decline to new lows.

So much is conjecture at this point, but the main point of the update is to illustrate that even if gold is adopting bubble dynamics, it likely has not nearly expressed the upside required for this to be a terminal bubble blow off and a decline now, would make the technical situation more healthy and potentially set up major upside to come.

I can only tell what I see. Things are really only just getting started (bubble dynamics-wise) in my opinion. But the ride will not be [a] smooth one from here on. It is up to individuals to decide how to handle the situation. I have added some silver put exposure after financially soul searching yesterday and deciding to take insurance. Personal insurance may extend to gold as well, via bearish positions on GLD for the short term. I think I will be less weak on such a position as I was a couple weeks ago when the ill fated GLD puts were unwound quickly and unceremoniously.

But as of now, I expect any short term corrective activity to be ultimately healthy for gold. Right along with the herd being too bullish on gold, are the wise guys trying to call a gold bubble. These, I have to believe, are most often people who never were bullish (and never aboard the bull) to begin with and have been waiting for years to be able to call 'BUBBLE!' This is a bullish indicator for continued upside beyond near term correction.

Regards,

GaryYesterday afternoon an NFTRH email update went out on silver and this morning in pre-market, one was sent out about gold.  NFTRH is much more than a weekly letter, which I feel stands with any of its competitors.  Aside from timely updates about broad and specific markets, technical setups are highlighted on what I consider quality stock situations, and sometimes informal 'speaking' as letter writer to readers, happens as well.  I am just another lowly market participant, after all.

I notice guys giving stuff away out there in a routine manner and increasingly, I am backing away from that.  But here for you dear blog reader is free stuff, and it's pretty recent, too.  Do with it as you will but understand that this writer cares deeply about getting the markets right and also the financial well being of his subscribers.  He also cares deeply about not getting caught up with scared, greedy and stupid money knee jerking around out of emotion. 

I think everyone who reads this blog consistently should be a subscriber but then, I am biased I guess.  I don't tell people what to do but rather, what is brewing in the markets so that they can decide for themselves.  Often these exercises work to my advantage, as writing it all out with the weight of knowing that real people read and depend on these opinions, helps me get my own head in order.  I shorted both silver and gold against 'long and strong' precious metals positions.

NFTRH Update (August 22): Silver at target, etc.

I make no bones about the fact that I am a risk manager first, and risk taker second. Silver has come, for all intents and purposes, to our target at around 44. Therefore, I am cautious on it.

I have not yet decided whether to take some put or short position insurance out on this caution (against PM stocks and metals) and I am not going to send out a 'flash update' type of thing if I do. That is because shorting a favored asset class is a very personal - and dangerous thing. If you too are at all concerned or feel you are too heavily involved from the bull side, there is always the 'profit taking' option.

Silver can certainly go higher, but a target is a target and if the current rebound is just a reactionary rise off of the April crash, the equivalent of SLV 42-44 (see chart attached) could be as good as it gets for a while.

I know that sounds like crazy talk in the midst of a precious metals upside hysteria, but I would rather crazy talk now than be sorry I didn't, later.

Regardless, silver has retraced 62% of the crash and it will be interesting to see what develops now. HUI has kissed our upside parameter near 610, but not crossed above. Gold is accelerating and continuing to scare me. I am benefiting by what is happening there, but I am a bottom feeder and raw momentum makes me nervous. So I look on in dull fascination.

Price-wise, the gold miners are a value compared to the 'price' of the metal. We await information as to whether continued buying opportunity will come at a confirmed HUI 610+ or on some kind of a reaction downside.

Really, all I can definitively state is that silver has come to an upside target we have had open for many weeks now and HUI has come to our upside pivot point.

Regards,

Gary

NFTRH Update (August 23, pre-market): Gold

The talk is everywhere, even as the gold dealer ads on Fox become more densely rotated, the talk of a gold bubble does so as well (including at my own blog http://biiwii.blogspot.com/2011/08/gold-channel-buster-up-now-going.html).

I have marked up the chart from that post and attached it here. It shows gold proxy GLD's channel buster up and a likely path for correction and resumed bullishness. If gold is in a bubble - and I have long felt the precious metals bull market may end in bubble dynamics, with people chasing out of fear as opposed to the raw greed of the tech bubble for example - it, in my opinion, has significantly higher to go before anything resembling terminal activity comes about. In other words, a correction now would be a good and healthy thing - and it would alleviate my nervousness. ;-)

Back to the chart, using silver as a guide, it is likely that gold will take a correction to punish all the new and unhealthy holders; the 'knee jerks'. This could happen in conjunction with the expected stock market relief ('okay, everybody back in the pool!') as markets simply do their thing and wash and rinse the herds. If gold stocks are held within the HUI 610 limit, I would expect them to decline less than gold, if indeed gold is about to start a correction. A separate update or spotlight in NFTRH150 will highlight what I think are the likely scenarios in gold stocks on the basis of most to least probable.

So, back to the attached chart yet again, I would like to see gold correct back toward the channel and one or both of the moving averages (the weekly EMA 20 is currently at 1610, EMA 10 is 1697). If the silver chart is any kind of a reliable template, gold would go much higher after this correction. This would of course inversely fit with a scenario calling for broad market recovery, failure and decline to new lows.

So much is conjecture at this point, but the main point of the update is to illustrate that even if gold is adopting bubble dynamics, it likely has not nearly expressed the upside required for this to be a terminal bubble blow off and a decline now, would make the technical situation more healthy and potentially set up major upside to come.

I can only tell what I see. Things are really only just getting started (bubble dynamics-wise) in my opinion. But the ride will not be [a] smooth one from here on. It is up to individuals to decide how to handle the situation. I have added some silver put exposure after financially soul searching yesterday and deciding to take insurance. Personal insurance may extend to gold as well, via bearish positions on GLD for the short term. I think I will be less weak on such a position as I was a couple weeks ago when the ill fated GLD puts were unwound quickly and unceremoniously.

But as of now, I expect any short term corrective activity to be ultimately healthy for gold. Right along with the herd being too bullish on gold, are the wise guys trying to call a gold bubble. These, I have to believe, are most often people who never were bullish (and never aboard the bull) to begin with and have been waiting for years to be able to call 'BUBBLE!' This is a bullish indicator for continued upside beyond near term correction.

Regards,

Gary

http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com


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