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NFTRH - Yin & Yang

This post goes up because I think it can have some general value to readers and because well, it's my blog and the following speaks to who I am - at least as you (especially NFTRH subscribers) know me as a market watcher.

This morning I sent out an email pertaining to the HUI's short term situation, the risks involved therein and the general 'noise' level of the current broad market rally. Two responses came in that I found very interesting, because they basically take a look at the same characteristics (of mine) and come to wildly different conclusions.

I think it is important to respect both viewpoints because the newsletter is definitely not for everybody and is indeed a different market letter. That is because I am a different dude and I can only be me. And believe me, you do not all want me. I don't think I am 'conceited' but I am definitely confident in who I am as a market watcher and cannot go changing, especially now that the bullish pressure has turned the screws.

First the bad news (and I do consider it bad because this is from a thoughtful person and it bothers me that someone is paying for the service and not having expectations met). It has been a grind week after week, month after month talking about risk. Just as the popular newsletter sentiment indicator states, people are more likely to buy a newsletter with a bullish view. I can't do that right now. Just as I could not be bearish late last year and into March.

As I replied to the subscriber, if I start flapping around in the wind instead of standing for what I believe (right or wrong), then the service would be useless to everybody.

Hi Gary, I wrote the following before getting your update today and was just about to import it to my mailbox to send to you. I think it may be too harsh an assessment, but I also want you to know what I think about when I've had very little sleep:

You've started to exhibit an "above the fray" kind of attitude that is bordering on the conceited. You seem, from my perspective, to feel that to steer your subscribers to truly profit from your wisdom is somehow beneath the mission of NFTRH. If all I want is a worldview according to Gary, and to profit from said worldview is a side benefit, maybe your newsletter is for me. But, maybe then, it's also a luxury I can't afford. The updates seem to have grown sparse and the profit plays are for the simple minded masses who read your blogs, not the "smart" folk who are paid subscribers.

Your response is appreciated. I must also tell you I've been up for two days working an impossible schedule for clients I took on thinking the end of the world is at hand, so I'd better work my tail off while work is still to be had so I can give my son a least some of the stability and freedom from want, and freedom in general, my parents gave me. Sorry for the latter near run-on sentence. If I seem disturbed with you, I'm sorry. You're still cool with me. I'm just a bit tired of what's going on around me.

It might be that a bit more of an equally weighted balance of Gary's worldview with how to make some money is what I'm after. I doubt if I'm alone in that desire.

Then, as if its ears were burning the next mail came in. Again, these two gentlemen are looking at the same service and basically highlighting the same qualities. I suppose it is easy to pretend to be a contrarian, but it takes a real disturbed individual :-) to actually be contrary all the positive reinforcement out there. Running a newsletter, you are reminded of just how difficult it can be.

It takes real honest-to-goodness courage to break from the pack and think for yourself. We are herd(ing) animals and are influenced by (large) movements of our fellow creatures. This is why the average person sells at the bottoms and buys at the tops.
The perfect example of this is that strange pull you feel when a group of people rush in one direction. You feel compelled to follow and you rationalize that feeling by saying that they must know something you don't.
When someone or something speaks or acts like it knows something (e.g. Fed or President) this presence acts to fill the vacuum created by our own doubt about what to do. This explains Cramer and his Cramericans. Some people "need" leadership to substitute for their lack of backbone. It also acts as a buffer to their embarrassment and anger if the movement turns out to be wrong. (Hey, I was just doing what I was told to do)
I appreciate that you remind us to stay aware, to clearly see that the crowd is surging and moving and we don't "need" to follow simply because we feel compelled to do so. Just because the majority are doing something doesn't mean it's correct.