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Notes...

|Includes: DIA, FXE, GDX, GDXJ, SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), IEF, IEI, QQQ, SPY, TLT

If new lows are seen this week in global markets, all bets are off. NFTRH is at a neutral risk rating for the short term because that is the only stance it can have, given that risk has come into play for the bears as well, given the current sentiment structure. Risk remains high in the intermediate time frame.

Gold is the only safety asset left; and that applies whether its price of the moment goes up or down. Its value proposition is what will be important. Pays no dividend, denominates no liability, remember? If the shit hits the fan, gold's REAL price is going to rise strongly for all the reasons belabored repeatedly. US treasuries will get the bid for sure if markets tank, but they have a nagging detrimental issue; namely their mark to unpayable debt of a nation that runs on debt.

It is never good for gold to get pumped on war, so I am glad to see the Korea news has not sent it up sharply. Gold is a place where value can be stored over time as authorities systematically erode the value of their respective currencies.

If today's downside is driven mostly by war fears, the markets should rebound from it. If it is driven by the news of Spain springing another leak in euro land, and the euro breaks to new lows, our potential rebound scenario is in trouble.

This has the makings of the fear that would be necessary to support the next bubble, after the smoke clears; that next bubble would be not in gold, which would simply seek out its proper price value in relation to other things (ie, its real price), but in gold stocks, whose leverage to the POG will come into play soon enough.

To subscribers: If the whole mess takes another lurch south, the NFTRH speculative portfolio will likely reduce down a bit to a core of gold stock holdings and await buying opportunities as noted on the weekly HUI chart. But I personally want to be very careful about trying not to blink, through emotianswer this questionon or over-reaction. I know what I hold and why. We should all know 'what' and 'why'. It is a time for cash, patience and the understanding that gold is THE unique asset class when systems are falling apart and confidence is being eroded.

Meanwhile, we watch to see if the global macro market managers can pull a rabbit out of the hat. Either way, the next bubble stands to be an outstanding one; born of fear as opposed to the usual greed: Gold and especially gold stocks leveraged to the POG. But please remember the time frame noted in #86, for the likely next leg up.

Edit (4:03) There, that wasn't so bad now was it? :-) BTW, I just noticed some strange words in this post; gobbldeegook of some sort. Must've happened in the post editor. Seriously, I really am not losing it... I don't think.

Disclosure: Long precious metals sector