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Tesla’s Model 3 Yard Sale

|About: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

Summary

Tesla produces more Model 3 cars than it sells, so it came time to host a yard sale to dump some of the excess inventory.

The VIN range of the units on hand was from 47,000 to 100,000. That’s a very, very wide range, so beware of “peak” VIN numbers.

Some Monroneys were clearly incorrectly printed. While probably a simple clerical set of errors, also perhaps a symptom of something bigger.

Very few cars had Autopilot in any form -- they were priced to sell.

Other than the obvious Model 3 “overproduction and too many inventories” problem, I don’t know how to interpret this.  You tell me!

With a Model 3 backlog drier than Bob Dylan’s throat, desperate times call for desperate measures at Tesla (TSLA). The company had what might be described as a yard sale near the Fremont factory.

Let’s start with the location. This was about a mile South of the factory, at a place in turn located immediately North of the Seagate (STX) building. Hmm, who just joined Tesla from Seagate on August 6: David H. Morton, Jr. - CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER - Tesla | LinkedIn And then he resigned on September 4.

Probably just a coincidence.

A few buildings South of Seagate? The old Solyndra building. Who owns that building now? Tesla.

At the Model 3 yard sale, there were rows and rows of red, white, silver, blue, black and gray ones. The VIN numbers ranged from 47,000 to 100,000.

Consider that wide span for a moment: Is that what would be a natural occurrence for something like this? The highest VINs were barely above 100,000, so this 47,000 to 100,000 range would span half the production line’s history.

Some of the Monroneys in the cars were incorrect. Here is a typical example:

“Model 3 Long Range AWD”

Model 3 $35,000

Long Range Rear Wheel Drive $14,000

Premium Interior INCLUDED

Color $1,500

18’ Wheels INCLUDED

Destination & Reg Doc Fee $1,200

TOTAL $51,700

Can you spot the error up there? Yes, it says AWD, but the description below, as well as the “price that makes sense” is for this to be a Rear Wheel Drive (RWD) car. Both can’t be true. AWD would be more than $51,700.

Probably just a clerical error, but it was on a large number of the cars at the yard sale.

The other observation is that Autopilot in any form was on only very few of the cars. A tiny minority percentage.

Conclusion from all of this? None from this end, that you didn’t already know, or had at least heard, from reading a wide set of Twitter feeds that we have all studied with great interest. You tell me what your interpretation is!

Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA.

Additional disclosure: At the time of submitting this article for publication, the author was short TSLA. However, positions can change at any time. The author regularly attends press conferences, new vehicle launches and equivalent, hosted by most major automakers.