Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Jaguar I-Pace Norway Update: Now Beating Tesla By 63%

|About: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), TTM, Includes: AUDVF, HYMLF, HYMTF, KIMTF, VLKAF, VLKPF, VWAGY
Summary

Jaguar i-Pace continues to pull ahead of Tesla Model S+X in sales, in Norway. It was ahead in October by 40% earlier in the week. Now at 63%.

Jaguar has now passed Kia Soul EV to become the fourth-best selling EV in Norway. Tesla Model X is #8 and Model S is #10.

Tesla typically delivers a majority of its cars in Norway in the last month of the quarter, so Tesla could still win this race for Q4 as a whole.

However, maybe the advent of the Jaguar i-Pace -- and soon the Audi eTron -- will change Norway’s love for Tesla as we go into Q1 2019.

With reliable high-end alternatives to Tesla, and lower-priced long-range ones such as Hyundai Kona EV and Kia Niro EV, things don’t look good for Tesla for Q1 2019.

On October 17, I published an article pointing out that in Norway, the October month-to-date sales numbers for the Jaguar (TTM) i-Pace electric SUV were so strong, that it had outsold Tesla (TSLA) Model S and X combined to the tune of 40%: Jaguar i-Pace Outsells Tesla S And X Combined By 40% In Norway

Naturally, given that the sales numbers are ongoing, I plan on many updates to this story. This is the first such update.

I dipped into the Norwegian registration statistics at some point in the evenings, Norway time, and obtained these results for the last three days:

2018-10 Norway

Oct 1-18

Oct 1-19

Oct 1-20

1

Nissan LEAF

676

700

706

2

VW eGolf

438

460

460

3

BMW i3

272

280

280

4

Jaguar i-Pace

218

241

241

5

Kia Soul EV

220

231

231

6

Renault Zoe

121

123

124

7

Hyundai Ioniq EV

93

104

109

8

Tesla Model X

79

89

89

9

Nissan e-NV200

57

59

59

10

Tesla Model S

55

58

58

11

VW eUp

43

53

55

Top 11

2272

2398

2412

Others

191

191

193

TOTAL

2463

2589

2605

As you can see in the table above, the Jaguar i-Pace is now in the impressive position of being the #4 best-seller in Norway, having just passed Kia Soul EV. Jaguar i-Pace is also exceeding Tesla Model S and X combined by 63%. That’s up from 40% only a few days ago.

I am very much familiar with the fact that Tesla’s deliveries in Norway tend to be concentrated in the last month of the quarter. As such, one should still expect, as a baseline scenario, that Tesla will outsell Jaguar this quarter.

However, perhaps the tide is now starting to shift? Perhaps Q4 2018 is the last of those huge “last month of the quarter” situations?

Maybe, now that the Norwegians see that they they have a reliable alternative to Tesla, which doesn’t break down all the time and doesn’t take months to repair, they will switch their buying preferences going into the first quarter of 2019? Becoming friends with the tow truck operator is something only a few people enjoy, I imagine.

Then, at some point in the next 30-60 days, we should see Audi’s first eTron deliveries in Norway too. Keep in mind that Audi (both individually and as part of the VW Group) is a much bigger brand in Norway than Jaguar in the first place.

Therefore, if Jaguar has great success with the i-Pace now, just imagine how big a success Audi will have with the eTron, starting as little as a month or two from now. I predict that Norwegian demand for the Model S and X will fall in Q1 and Q2 2019. Jaguar and Audi would pick up most of this business, followed by Hyundai and Kia.

Audi announced at its eTron introduction event on September 17, that its initial production capacity for the eTron is 200 cars per day. So that would mean at least 50,000 per year.

In the meantime, Jaguar i-Pace is now the fourth-best selling electric car in Norway.

Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA.

Additional disclosure: At the time of submitting this article for publication, the author was short TSLA. However, positions can change at any time. The author regularly attends press conferences, new vehicle launches and equivalent, hosted by most major automakers.