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One Week Into April, Tesla’s Model 3 Sales In Norway Has Collapsed 69%

|About: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
Summary

Tesla’s Model 3 sales in Norway has fallen from 171 per day to 53 one week into April. That’s a 69% reduction.

Tesla’s Model X and S are falling far short of the new competition from Audi and Jaguar.

Audi eTron and Jaguar i-Pace are outselling the Model S and X combined by a ratio of 5.1 to 1. That’s huge.

Of course, both April and Q2 itself are still early.  Almost anything can happen before the month ends, and for that matter the quarter.

That said, this is a near-catastrophic bad start for Tesla in Norway, in April.  I will be watching these metrics carefully.

In March, Tesla’s (TSLA) Model 3 sales in Norway reached 171 cars per day -- 5,315 units divided by 31 days. We now have a full week of April under our belt, so where are we now?

Seven days into April, Tesla has sold 371 Model 3 units in Norway:

2019-04 Norway

Apr 7

1

Tesla Model 3

371

2

VW eGolf

183

3

Nissan LEAF

135

4

BMW i3

103

5

Audi eTron

78

6

Jaguar i-Pace

61

7

Hyundai Ioniq EV

54

8

Hyundai Kona EV

39

9

Nissan e-NV200

40

10

Renault Zoe

35

11

Kia Soul EV

30

12

VW eUp

20

13

Tesla Model X

18

14

Kia Niro EV

16

15

Fiat 500e

16

16

Tesla Model S

9

17

Opel Ampera-e

9

As you can see in the table below, that still puts the Model 3 as the best-selling BEV in Norway. However, the daily sales rate is only 53 at this point. That’s a 69% decline from March.

What about the Tesla Model S and X? Forget their absolute level of sales -- what matters for those is how they do compared to the new and very much direct competition from Audi and Jaguar.

Tesla sold 18 Model X and 9 Model S. That’s 27 in total. Audi sold 78 eTron and Jaguar sold 61 i-Pace. That’s 139 total. Divide 139 by 27 and you get a “Luxury Ratio” (LR) of 5.1.

In other words, Audi and Jaguar are outselling their direct Tesla competitors -- Model S and X -- by a 5.1 to 1 in Norway, thus far in April. I will have more numbers like this from other countries in Europe soon -- both for the March that ended, as well as April as it progresses.

These trends are not positive for Tesla’s Q2 -- not positive at all. That said, it’s still way too early to make any decent predictions about Tesla’s Q2. We need to get at least through April -- and probably a little more -- before we can pin down Tesla’s Q2 in Europe with a higher degree of certainty.

But these are very bad initial signs for Tesla.

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Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA.

Additional disclosure: At the time of submitting this article for publication, the author was short TSLA and long FCAU and GM. However, positions can change at any time. The author regularly attends press conferences, new vehicle launches and equivalent, hosted by most major automakers.