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Final Tesla Q2 Unit Sales Estimate Revision: 92,100

|About: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
Summary

The latest U.S. Tesla unit sales estimate from Insideevs causes me to lift my Q2 sales estimate.

The change is approximately 4,000 units, from little over 88,000 to 92,100. This also includes a variety of actual numbers from Europe.

The Netherlands saw huge numbers come in around Friday. That alone lifted my estimates by several hundreds of units.

Overall, the rest of Europe came in as I expected: Model 3 a little lower, and Models X and S a little higher than very low estimates.

Now watch Tesla’s sales fall off a cliff staring already in the first half of July.  The decline from the June sales number will likely be epic.

Last Thursday evening, I penned what I hoped would be my final Tesla (TSLA) Q2 unit sales estimate revision for the quarter. Since then, a few things happened:

  1. In The Netherlands, there was a very strong finish over the weekend -- including especially the Friday and Saturday numbers. One suspects a fleet sale. In any case, that lifted my estimates by a few hundred units.

  2. On Monday and early Tuesday, we got reports from countries such as Austria, Sweden, Belgium, France, Denmark, Switzerland, Ireland, Finland, Portugal and Italy. All in all, there were not any huge surprises there. Model 3 was a bit lower, on average, where as Models X and S were a bit higher. Not material, overall.

  3. However, on Tuesday mid-day, we got the Insideevs estimates for the U.S. market. They were materially higher than my Tesla U.S. estimates from last week. Incorporating this into my model, this lifts it, cumulatively with all the changes above, to 92,100 units. That’s approximately 4,000 above where I was when I wrote my article late Thursday last week (published Friday morning).

There are still at least four very important countries left to report: China, Canada, Germany and The U.K. The swing factor therefore remains material, but I doubt it’s more than another 3,000 units, up or down, likely a lot less than 3,000 up or down. China and Canada are particularly hard to estimate this quarter. There are some good estimates out there that suggest China alone will be 2,000 or so units higher than I have. If so, we would be between 94,000 and 95,000 units.

Before turning to the actual tables with the numbers, let’s also point out that as usual, Tesla’s quarter-end bubble-push has already deflated spectacularly in countries such as Norway. Based on the first two days of sales in July, things have collapsed for Tesla there. Of course, the same happened one quarter ago. Still, this is not a sign of a healthy sales rhythm. Tesla’s ability to sell around 90,000 cars per quarter is becoming increasingly difficult and happens only with massive discounting and related incentives.

All of that said, here is the Model 3 total number:

Model 3

April

May

June

Q2 2019

Germany

514

317

1300

2131

Norway

720

705

3012

4437

Netherlands

467

419

2487

3373

France

251

321

1097

1669

Switzerland

486

144

501

1131

Belgium

111

138

403

652

Austria

142

127

326

595

Italy

149

125

372

646

Finland

87

42

111

240

Spain

51

122

281

454

Portugal

98

84

228

410

Luxembourg

40

34

60

134

Sweden

446

198

524

1168

Denmark

168

146

420

734

UK

0

0

800

800

Ireland

0

0

0

0

EUROPE

3730

2922

11922

18574

EV Blogspot

3738

2849

6587

TMC Euro

3708

2889

6597

USA

10050

13950

20550

44550

Canada

400

400

3000

3800

N AMERICA

10450

14350

23550

48350

Australia

0

0

400

400

China

2324

1903

3500

7727

ASIA

2324

1903

3900

8127

TOTAL

16504

19175

39372

75051

And here is the Model S total number:

Model S

April

May

June

Q2 2019

Germany

40

68

80

188

Norway

23

47

434

504

Netherlands

2

11

54

67

France

33

50

101

184

Switzerland

27

20

77

124

Belgium

13

19

76

108

Austria

31

32

62

125

UK

98

100

200

398

Italy

42

21

55

118

Finland

10

0

32

42

Spain

14

14

39

67

Portugal

6

12

61

79

Ireland

15

1

6

22

Sweden

90

112

209

411

Denmark

2

6

22

30

EUROPE

446

513

1508

2467

TMC Euro

440

548

988

USA

825

1025

1750

3600

Canada

110

110

200

420

N AMERICA

935

1135

1950

4020

China

111

269

200

580

New Zealand

9

6

15

30

Australia

100

100

100

300

ASIA

220

375

315

910

TOTAL

1601

2023

3773

7397

Here is the Model X total number:

Model X

April

May

June

Q2 2019

Germany

21

48

50

119

Norway

68

258

314

640

Netherlands

2

9

45

56

France

21

42

87

150

Switzerland

16

31

77

124

Belgium

9

30

105

144

Austria

13

29

85

127

UK

98

106

200

404

Italy

18

14

44

76

Finland

10

0

27

37

Spain

11

16

32

59

Portugal

8

18

61

87

Ireland

10

1

4

15

Sweden

23

56

86

165

Denmark

0

6

22

28

EUROPE

328

664

1239

2231

TMC Euro

313

682

995

USA

1050

1375

2725

5150

Canada

150

150

300

600

N AMERICA

1200

1525

3025

5750

China

260

682

400

1342

New Zealand

4

10

15

29

Australia

100

100

100

300

ASIA

364

792

515

1671

TOTAL

1892

2981

4779

9652

And here is the geographical breakdown summarized:

Europe

April

May

June

Q2 2019

Model 3

3730

2922

11922

18574

Model S

446

513

1508

2467

Model X

328

664

1239

2231

TOTAL

4504

4099

14669

23272

N AMERICA

April

May

June

Q2 2019

Model 3

10450

14350

23550

48350

Model S

935

1135

1950

4020

Model X

1200

1525

3025

5750

TOTAL

12585

17010

28525

58120

ASIA

April

May

June

Q2 2019

Model 3

2324

1903

3900

8127

Model S

220

375

315

910

Model X

364

792

515

1671

TOTAL

2908

3070

4730

10708

TOTAL

19997

24179

47924

92100

And who knows, if Tesla doesn’t report its Q2 number soon enough, perhaps I may be induced to publish yet another update before!

Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA.

Additional disclosure: At the time of submitting this article for publication, the author was short TSLA. However, positions can change at any time. The author regularly attends press conferences, new vehicle launches and equivalent, hosted by most major automakers.