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Audi eTron Global Sales Trends

|About: AUDI AG (AUDVF), POAHY, VLKAF, Includes: TSLA
Summary

I have assembled Audi eTron sales data from all available countries.

We are looking at a minimum sales rate of 25,000 to 30,000 per year, but likely already higher, and certainly will be with geographic expansion such as China.

The eTron Sportback variant should also add to the vehicle line’s total sales, as we enter 2020.

I wish we could get better sales data from countries such as the U.K. and Canada, among others.

The U.S. sales numbers have been clear as far as they go, but remain too early to judge.  It could go either way in the next few short months.

After a few months of dealer demo registrations, which are customary in Europe, the Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) eTron deliveries started in Europe in mid-March, and in the U.S. near the end of April. With that in mind, we can take a look at what the sales have been through June, and what are the daily sales trends from three European countries.

Let’s start with the Audi (OTCPK:VLKAF) eTron global sales table:

Audi eTron

2019-01

2019-02

2019-03

2019-04

2019-05

2019-06

2019-07

TOTAL

Germany

407

155

478

174

322

246

1782

Norway

8

110

680

371

530

598

500

2797

Sweden

0

25

47

43

80

75

270

Netherlands

2

0

40

55

160

102

125

484

Belgium

13

40

59

59

100

271

Switzerland

0

0

93

33

48

232

406

Austria

0

0

53

16

36

38

143

France

0

14

140

22

17

30

223

Italy

0

10

39

12

11

72

Spain

0

9

62

14

6

22

10

123

Denmark

2

8

16

26

Finland

0

14

9

10

13

24

70

Ireland

6

6

EUROPE

430

377

1702

823

1339

1367

6038

"Missing" Europe

1

10

89

130

137

367

USA

0

0

0

253

856

726

1835

TOTAL

430

377

1702

1076

2195

2093

7873

Europe

431

387

1791

953

1476

5038

Europe YTD

431

818

2609

3576

5061

Europe

431

387

1791

953

1476

5038

USA

0

0

0

253

856

726

1835

TOTAL

431

387

1791

1206

2332

726

6873

As you can see in the table below, we don’t have all monthly numbers from all countries yet. For June, I have estimated the number for France based on some parameters -- but it’s not the official number. It’s not going to be off by all that much, but I added it because it’s probably a decent estimate (30).

There are several countries I don’t have at all, such as the U.K., Canada and China. Therefore, total global sales are clearly larger than these numbers, even if the contribution from some countries -- say, Australia or New Zealand -- are likely small, if the car is even sold there at all.

For the Audi (OTCPK:POAHY) eTron, it looks like the major swing country in the near term could be the U.S. It has seen numbers around 800 per month for May-June, but it’s really difficult to draw any “stabilized” conclusions yet. It is -- and sounds -- obvious, but it could go up and down from here. The point is that the U.S. number has more up and down side potential, in terms of the total impact, than most or all individual countries in Europe.

I think the best we can say about the eTron is that it’s selling more than 2,000 units per month on a global basis, and that a disproportionately large share of those are in Europe. It is doing better than the Tesla (TSLA) Model S and X in many countries there.

So does this mean that the Audi eTron is on a pathway to selling “only” 25,000 to 30,000 eTrons per year, or does it mean that the number will be higher, perhaps double? It seems to me right now that the number has the potential to double, to perhaps around 50,000 units per year, for a few reasons:

  1. Geographic expansion to China, India and other markets.

  2. Greater awareness of the eTron in existing markets.

  3. The advent, near the end of 2019, perhaps early 2020, of the eTron Sportback. This is the same car as the eTron, except with a slight different “upper body” style. It would be what the BMW X6 is to the BMW X5.

With the eTron, Audi is laying the foundation for a far less expensive model, the 2021 Q4 eTron, that while slightly smaller on the inside, will also be smaller on the outside and be far less expensive to build. It will have a far lower price than the eTron -- perhaps at least one-third lower. It should sell for around $50,000, and likely a bit below, say closer to $40,000. It will be built initially in Zwickau, Germany and we should see it in dealerships in the first half of 2021.

Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA.

Additional disclosure: At the time of submitting this article for publication, the author was short TSLA. However, positions can change at any time. The author regularly attends press conferences, new vehicle launches and equivalent, hosted by most major automakers. Audi hosted product intro events.