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Jaguar I-Pace Global Sales Trends

|About: AUDI AG (AUDVF), VLKAF, POAHY, Includes: TSLA
Summary

Jaguar i-Pace went on sale around September 2018 in Europe and shortly thereafter in the U.S. Now we have a record of sales data from many countries.

So far in 2019, it looks like sales peaked in March, but that’s with the caveat that we don’t have sales data from China, Canada and the U.K., for example.

The tiny European trend signs for July point to a down month (compared to June). Competition from Audi eTron and Tesla Model 3?

The most remarkable thing about the Jaguar i-Pace’s sales number is that the U.S. number has been extremely stable -- except at a very low level.

The current sales “base” has been around 20,000 units annualized, but that could grow with geographical expansion, especially into Asia.

Jaguar started deliveries in Europe late Q3 in Europe, after a few months of dealer demo registrations. The U.S. followed in late October 2019. Therefore, it’s been more than a full half-year with good data available, both from the U.S. as well as most of Europe.

Let’s look at the sales table, as best we have it right now:

Jaguar iPace

2019-01

2019-02

2019-03

2019-04

2019-05

2019-06

2019-07

TOTAL

Germany

16

92

106

85

86

56

385

Norway

79

391

442

350

510

331

200

2303

Sweden

16

11

33

33

23

9

125

Netherlands

15

5

40

11

26

13

10

120

Belgium

36

50

61

62

37

246

Switzerland

14

39

70

69

55

247

France

31

47

42

53

39

40

252

Italy

12

14

29

20

22

17

114

Spain

19

27

20

6

22

16

10

120

Portugal

46

46

Finland

19

11

7

16

13

1

67

Denmark

0

15

10

16

4

45

Austria

15

25

28

39

20

16

127

Ireland

3

3

Czech

1

2

3

7

12

25

Russia

10

10

EUROPE

273

729

891

826

869

499

4235

"Missing" Euro

289

205

669

403

483

USA

210

186

212

237

228

236

1309

TOTAL

483

915

1103

1063

1097

735

4661

Europe

562

934

1560

1229

1352

5637

Europe YTD

562

1496

3051

4284

5637

Europe

562

934

1560

1229

1352

5637

USA

210

186

212

237

228

236

1073

TOTAL

772

1120

1772

1466

1580

236

6710

As you can see in the table above, there are missing entries. For example, Switzerland, where the Audi (OTCPK:VLKAF) eTron had considerable success especially in June. The June France number is an estimate based on some indications and parameters.

The single most remarkable thing is how stable the Jaguar i-Pace sales have been in the U.S. They have been at or a hair above 200 units per month essentially since inception. I would never have expected that.

The bad news there is of course that barely exceeding 200 units per month is a very low number. I had hoped for a lot more. However, I am impressed with the stability of the number.

In Europe, it looks like Jaguar i-Pace peaked in March and have been trending down since then, including an early projection for July. Norway, Netherlands and Spain report their numbers daily. Why is Jaguar i-Pace sales in those countries looking down in July?

One might suspect that competition from the Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) eTron and Tesla (TSLA) Model 3 are likely culprits. We should also keep in mind that we do not (yet) have good sales data from Jaguar’s “home” country, the U.K.

Could Jaguar’s i-Pace sales improve from here? I see one major reason why they could: Geographic expansion, especially into Asia. Whether China or Australia, I could see sales running several hundred units per month higher by adding more countries under the sales belt.

All in all, before taking into account China and other unknown markets, Jaguar is looking at a baseline of approximately 20,000 annualized i-Pace sales. That number should become larger as geographic availability of the Jaguar i-Pace expands, especially into Asia.

Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA.

Additional disclosure: At the time of submitting this article for publication, the author was short TSLA. However, positions can change at any time. The author regularly attends press conferences, new vehicle launches and equivalent, hosted by most major automakers. Jaguar hosted product intros.