Zero Increase In Teton County Net Virus Cases In 10 Days
Long/Short Equity
Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2008
Summary
- Teton County has had the same 21 net virus cases on June 30, July 3 and July 9. Zero increase from ten days ago until now.
- Teton County’s net virus case count fell from 34 on April 9 -- three months ago -- to 21 now. That’s a 38% decline in three months.
- There was no mask requirement three months ago, when there were so many more cases. So why now?
- Teton County’s share of Wyoming’s total net cases fell from over 21% on April 9 to under 6% now. That’s a 73% decline.
- Shouldn’t Teton County therefore logically be rewarded with *fewer* virus regulations than Wyoming as a whole?
So much for local politicians panicking for some species of “huge increase” in net virus cases in Teton County! It turns out that the net number of virus cases, per The Wyoming Department of Health, was 21 on June 30, as well as on July 3 and July 9. It’s been flat for ten days.
So, during a time in which Jackson town and Teton County have been running around spinning a tale around a spike in cases, there has been ZERO increase in net cases. “Net case” is of course the gross number of cases minus recoveries and deaths. One person died in Teton County -- on April 23. That’s two and a half months ago.
Here are the numbers:
Date |
Teton net cases |
Wyoming net cases |
% of state |
2020-04-03 |
26 |
125 |
20.80% |
2020-04-04 |
26 |
138 |
18.84% |
2020-04-05 |
30 |
150 |
20.00% |
2020-04-06 |
30 |
158 |
18.99% |
2020-04-07 |
31 |
159 |
19.50% |
2020-04-08 |
31 |
156 |
19.87% |
2020-04-09 |
34 |
159 |
21.38% |
2020-04-10 |
25 |
151 |
16.56% |
2020-04-11 |
26 |
152 |
17.11% |
2020-04-12 |
29 |
160 |
18.13% |
2020-04-13 |
29 |
164 |
17.68% |
2020-04-14 |
28 |
152 |
18.42% |
2020-04-15 |
26 |
148 |
17.57% |
2020-06-30 |
21 |
304 |
6.91% |
2020-07-03 |
21 |
343 |
6.12% |
2020-07-09 |
21 |
364 |
5.77% |
Data source: COVID-19 Map and Statistics - Wyoming Department of Health
As you can see in the table above, three major things stand out:
The number of net virus cases now, July 9, is 38% lower than it was three months ago, on April 9. If there was no mask law/ordinance on April 9, why one when net cases are 38% lower?
Teton County’s share of Wyoming’s total has fallen from a high of 21.38% on April 9 to 5.77% on July 9. That’s a 73% decline. Why shouldn’t Teton County be rewarded by having/getting *less* restrictions than Wyoming as a whole, for that extreme outperformance?
The number of net virus cases in Teton County is no higher now -- July 9 -- than it was on July 3 or June 30. Basically, it’s the same 21 number now, as it was ten days ago.
Conclusion: Lower or eliminate the virus restrictions in Teton County
The data is crystal clear: Both in absolute terms, as well as in relative terms, Teton County’s net virus cases have fallen -- and dramatically so. And particularly in the last ten days, when there’s supposedly some panic going on, there has been ZERO increases in the net number of virus cases in Teton County.
How does a rational person who understands facts, data, science and indeed just basic math, respond to this?
Pickup trucks such as the ones from General Motors (GM), Ford (F) and RAM / FCA (FCAU) are more common in relatively rural Wyoming, compared to the more urban and coastal areas of the U.S.
Analyst's Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA.
At the time of submitting this article for publication, the author had no positions in any companies mentioned. However, positions can change at any time.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.