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My Prediction: Biden To Step Down By February 2022

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Anton Wahlman's Blog
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Long/Short Equity

Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2008

I am a former sell-side analyst -- UBS 1996-2002, Needham 2002-2006 and ThinkEquity 2006-2008. These days I review automobiles and other technology products, as well as analyze the automotive and technology industries, and coming up with long/short ideas. I also continue to write (less frequently) on macroeconomics and politics.


  • The Democrats are facing historical losses in the 2022 midterms. Who will get the blame?
  • Biden can minimize the blame he will be assigned in the history books by resigning as soon as possible.
  • A natural point would be the 2022 State of The Union speech, which would mark the one-year anniversary of him taking power.
  • If Biden waits any longer, he will catch a larger share of the blame for the 2022 midterm losses, and suffer reputational damage in the history books.
  • I draft Biden’s resignation speech.  It’s his best option right now, and Jill will advise him accordingly.

I have been saying this privately, and posting it in various places, for over one year already -- since late 2020 -- but the time is overdue to publish it in this format. My prediction is that President Biden will announce his resignation in his 2022 State of The Union speech, which traditionally happens in late January or in February.


No serious person believes that Biden will stand for re-election in 2024. Therefore, the only possible election that will be under his watch will be the 2022 midterm.

Biden -- both Joe and Jill -- care only about one thing at this point: Their legacy. As it stands, they face historic losses in the 2022 midterm. Looking at how fed up Americans are with masks, school closings and the substance-injection fiasco, the Republicans look to capture huge majorities in both the House and Senate.

If Biden is blamed for the 2022 midterms, his legacy is toast. He will be viewed like the US version of Konstantin Chernenko.

Jill and Joe Biden know that their “home stretch” from November 2022 until the end of 2024 would be beyond miserable. There is no escaping that at this point. The administration is a runaway train that is a crash in slow-motion.

Why now? (by February 2022)

It is pretty simple, actually: Knowing the outcome, you deal with the problem sooner rather than later. It’s like operating on a cancer: You do it immediately.

The longer Biden waits to depart, the more his legacy will be tainted by the historic 2022 midterm losses. If he could leave today and make it look good, he would.

I think Biden will want to say that he has been President for a full year. As it happens, the natural high-drama moment to make the statement is also coming up in about a month from now, late January plus or minus. The nation will be watching under any circumstance.

By leaving now (by February 2022), the historic 2022 midterm losses can be pinned on Kamala. If Biden waits until the Summer and the polls look just as bad, there is no escape from the reputational damage. He would look like he’s jumping out of a burning car with Kamala strapped behind a faulty seatbelt.

Biden’s Resignation Speech

“My fellow Americans, I came into this office just over one year ago. The situation was dire. In only one year, I have managed to stabilize the situation and set the country on a solid footing from which it can now start to rebuild.

During this time, I felt strong and driven by a mission of saving the country from the abyss. You may not have seen it, but I worked day and night together with a great team to stem the bleeding and build back better.

This was a herculean task, and it drained me of all my powers. It was worth it. However, in just the last few days, I started feeling something new: In saving the country, I had exhausted myself. My age was not a problem as little as a week ago.

When the facts change, I have to change too. Over the last couple of days, I have reassessed the situation and determined that these times call for a new energy injection. I will be forever grateful to have contributed all my remaining energies into the critical task of saving America from the abyss.

It is with this new realization that I am hereby announcing that Vice President Kamala Harris will be sworn in as President at Noon tomorrow. She will continue our work of building back America better and stronger than ever.

I will be enjoying my future with my grandkids on my knee. It’s been one heckuva ride, fifty years in politics, and now it’s time to hand over the stewardship of our country to a new generation. We made history in 2021 and President Harris will continue to make history in 2022 and beyond.”

-- Joe Biden, 2022 State of The Union speech

Analyst's Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours.

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