March 27th delayed FreeVenue public release of Nov 4 2010 guidance @ our MemberVenue
Today's chart introduces OPEC's long-term price outlook. It forecasts crude will average $80 to 2020, then rise to $106/barrel by 2030.
Also revised from our October chart is Freddy Hutter's monthly update of the TrendLines Barrel Meter. With Congress seemingly backing off its sentiment to abandon the Bush tax cuts, perceived adverse effects on the USDollar over the short and medium term cause a generally higher price outlook. Still, expected surplus capacity of at least 6-mbd will allow a secular decline in price toward an ultimate target of $61/barrel by 2015. In the improbable event major spikes present themselves, the model predicts the DDB will arrest a price runs @ $134/barrel. Critical thresholds on that journey are the re-collapse of New Car Sales @ $89 & relapse into Recession by some G-20 nations @ $105/barrel. The Barrel Meter imports data on projected extraction costs, spare production capacity & business cycles from our Peak Scenario 2500 depletion model. A similar analysis for gasoline price is featured via our Gas Pump presentation.