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Riding Projection for Canada's Federal Election

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click to enlarge - monthly chart

Harper only 1 Seat Shy of Majority with under 5-weeks to go

Welcome to coverage of our fourth Canadian General Election. We are humbled that all discussion in Canada surrounding an Opposition Coalition commenced with our Sept 1st 2008 blog posting. Our 2008 Election Campaign charts tracked the Coalition tally each day ... leading to this topic being included in the 2008 Leaders' English Debate. With this background, it may seem quite a departure to find that we do not expect that same prospect to come to fruition at the conclusion of this Writ. Caveat the unforeseen, the Conservative Party will gain MPs in this Election. On March 25th, this led me to forecast that should PM Harper fall short of Majority, it is very probable the Tories will form an Accord or Coalition with the NDP prior to the Throne Speech. This remains our position today.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections. Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada. One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.

April 22 2010 delayed FreeVenue public release of April 6th guidance @ our MemberVenue ~ The lamestream media is bewildered as to why the CPC has not been capitalizing on this week's awesome forecast by the OECD of 5.2% Q1 Canadian GDP. Simple: the OECD is wrong! As revealed by the Trendlines Recession Indicator fifteen days ago, Q1 was more likely only 2.2% (following 3.3% in Q4). The StatCan Q1 announcement will come a mere three days prior to Election Day. Should the Tories make a big deal of "5.2%" and it is found Real GDP actually fell ... the consequences on credibility could be tragic on that final campaign weekend. Granted we foresee 4.6% in Q2, but that announcement will come far too late. In a couple of days StatCan will also reveal if Unemployment remains in the 7.8% quagmire.

Crude oil has been in breach of $90/barrel for ten weeks. For a year we've warned that this event would cause a collapse of North American New Vehicle Sales. Similarly, oil may breach the $109/barrel threshold this week and inspire a new round of G-20 Recessions. We will update TRI on April 19th - so stay tuned - but it may be just as well macro economics do not become a central issue. The horizon is somewhat bleak and resolution of geo-political events in Libya will not turn petroleum prices around. Failure of Congress and the Obama Administration to address their structural deficits means USDollar Debasement has become a $22/barrel component of current pricing.

Bank of Canada raised interest rates too quickly ... as we warned they would (in March 2010). CMHC continues to feed the real estate bubble with its promotion of 5% down payments despite our warnings to pare back to 10% (over a year ago). Bad housing policy helped create Canada's $82,000 Housing Bubble and the imminent correction will be a head wind. Rising interest rates and oil prices are founding an export killing par-plus Loonie that undermines job creation. The Tories will want this Election over before a plethora of bad news hits.

The Trendlines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections. Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada. One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election. This model indicates PM Harper has a lead in 155 Ridings, followed by: 76 Liberals, 31 NDP, 45 BQ & 1 Indep't.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above. Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 8 national polls conducted Mar14-Apr3 by 12 active projection models. It reveals that the governing Conservative Party has a lead in 150 Seats ... down 1 from thirty days prior. The Liberal Party starts with 75 Members (same). The Bloc & NDP begin the Spring campaign with 50 & 33 Ridings respectively. Our long-term momentum indicator is favouring the Tories to gain 4 additional seats for a total of 154 by Election Day.