Riding Projection for Canada's Federal Election
Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2008
Tories 24 seats shy of Majority with 2 weeks to go
Welcome to coverage of our 4th Canadian General Election. We are humbled that all discussion in Canada surrounding an Opposition Coalition commenced with our Sept 1st 2008 blog posting. Our 2008 Election Campaign charts tracked the Coalition tally each day ... leading to this topic being included in the 2008 Leaders' English Debate. With this background, it may seem quite a departure to find that we do not expect that same prospect to come to fruition at the conclusion of this Writ. Caveat the unforeseen, the Conservative Party will gain MPs in this Election. On March 25th, this led me to forecast that should PM Harper fall short of Majority, it is very probable the Tories will form an Accord or Coalition with the NDP prior to the Throne Speech. This remains our position today.
The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections. Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from 14 international modelers. One of the models included is our own proprietary conversion. It was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.
Copyright ~ April 27 2011 delayed FreeVenue public release of April 20th guidance @ our MemberVenue ~ Momentum arising from the Leaders' Debates continues to favour the NDP (8 MP gain) at the expense of the CPC & Liberals. Should this surprising trend continue, the Tories will fail to gain a Majority and Jack Layton becomes the Leader of Her Majesty's Official Opposition.
May 2nd can't come soon enuf for the governing Party on the economic front. Yesterday's figures from the Trendlines Recession Indicator suggests StatCan will announce Q1 GDP rose from 3.3% to 6.3% ... only three days prior to voting day, But then, seven days after that excellent news, StatCan will remind Canadians Unemployment remains in a 7.8% quagmire. Our Barrel Meter's new projection says Crude Price could be $140/barrel by July. This does not bode well for our auto sector 'cuz our Gas Pump infers USA New Car Sales are decimated while Crude Price exceeds $90/barrel. The Barrel Meter bears further bad news with the warning that a new round of G-20 Recessions will start upon oil breaching $108/barrel. Should the economy survive those headwinds, we are certain Bank of Canada is preparing to raise interest rates about 1.5% to get them back to normal ... and this action will indeed burst Canada's $82,000 Housing Bubble. So, who's hand do we want on the tiller with all this on the horizon?
The Trendlines Research multi-model Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool measured over the last four major (Federal & Ontario) elections. Each month, it charts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada. One of the models included is our own conversion - and it was the most accurate in the 2008 Federal Election. Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model indicates PM Harper has a lead today in 137 Ridings, followed by: 86 Liberals, 39 NDP, 45 BQ & 0 Indept's.
When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above. Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 8 national polls conducted April 12-18 by 13 active projection models. It reveals that the governing Conservative Party has a lead in 145 Seats, the Liberals in 79. The Bloc & NDP sit at 46 & 38 potential Ridings respectively. Our momentum indicator projects the Tories will be 24 MPs shy (131) of a Majority on Election Day, followed by: 65 Liberals, 69 NDP, 43 BQ & 0 Indept's.
Our Election Day targets are of course vulnerable to interim events en route and subject to the dynamics of an Election Campaign.
The chart's "March" data points were based on 11 models' converting of 8 national polls conducted Mar22-Apr3 2011
The chart's "Feb" data points were based on 7 models' converting of 6 national polls conducted Feb2-27 2011
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.