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Riding Projection for Canada's Federal Election

click to enlarge
click to enlarge

New Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition?

Momentum arising from the Leaders' Debates continues to favour the NDP (11 MP gain) at the sentiment expense of the Greens, BQ, Liberals & CPC. Should this surprising trend continue, the Tories will fail to attain Majority status & Jack Layton becomes the Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.

May 2nd can't come fast enuf for the governing Party considering soon-to-surface economic issues. Tuesday's figures from the Trendlines Recession Indicator suggest StatCan will announce Q1 GDP rose from 3.3% to 6.3% ... only three days prior to voting day. But then seven days after that excellent news, StatCan will remind Canadians Unemployment remains in a 7.8% quagmire. Our Barrel Meter is forecasting Avg Crude Price could be $140/barrel by July. This does not bode well for our auto sector 'cuz our Gas Pump infers USA New Car Sales are decimated (or can stymie a rebound) while Crude Price exceeds $90/barrel. The Barrel Meter bears further bad news with the warning of a new round of G-20 Recessions while oil breaches $108/barrel. Should the economy survive those headwinds, we are certain Bank of Canada is preparing to raise interest rates about 1.5% to get them back to normal ... an action sure to burst Canada's $82,000 Housing Bubble. So, who's hand do we want on the tiller with all this on the horizon?

Since Oct/2004 the Trendlines Research multi-model Riding Projection has charted the average of recognized international seat projections. One of these models is our own conversion ... it being the most accurate of 17 in Canada's 2008 Election. Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model indicates PM Harper has a lead today in 138 Ridings, followed by: 86 Liberals, 39 NDP, 43 BQ & 2 Indept's.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above. Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 9 national polls conducted April 12-20 by 13 international projection models. It reveals that the governing Conservative Party has a lead in 145 Seats, the Liberals in 77. The Bloc & NDP sit at 43 & 42 potential Ridings respectively, plus one Indep't. Finally, our momentum indicator projects the Tories will be 17 MPs shy (138) of a Majority on Election Day, followed by: 74 NDP, 62 Liberals, 33 BQ & 1 Indep't.

Our Election Day targets are of course vulnerable to interim events en route and subject to the dynamics of an Election Campaign.

The chart's "March" data points were based on 11 models' converting of 8 national polls conducted Mar22-Apr3 2011

The chart's "Feb" data points were based on 7 models' converting of 6 national polls conducted Feb2-27 2011

The chart's "Jan" data points were based on 5 models' converting of 7 national polls conducted Jan9-Feb2 2011

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.