Riding Projection for Canada's Federal Election
Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2008
Harper Still 7 Shy after Final Weekend
May 2 2011 delayed FreeVenue public release of May 1st guidance @ our MemberVenue ~ Sentiment for tomorrow's vote reveals momentum arising from the Leaders' Debates continues to favour the NDP (58 MP gain) at the expense of 34 Liberals & 24 BQ, as well as capturing back 21% of national Green support.
There have been two surprises in this campaign. As in August 2008, Conservatives got a huge poll bump via pre-Writ negative Ignatieff advertising ... gaining 24 potential ridings (compared to 53 agin Dion). Last time, the Liberals instantly got back 37 as soon as the Opposition began their own ads. This time the Grits wrestled back only 8! Hmmm. Quebec voters have had a tendency towards "piling on", that is, upon seeing Majorities forming, they will switch support to the winning Party to attain Cabinet Members (& $) ... didn't happen this time around.
May Second can't come fast enuf for the governing Conservatives considering soon-to-surface economic issues. Yesterday's StatCan February data release re-confirms the Trendlines Recession Indicator forecast of Q1 economic growth rate being 6.3%. This excellent news will be short-lived. The quarter represented the end of stimulus cheques and TRI projects Q2 is on a much reduced 2.6% pace. Just seven days Voting Day, StatCan will remind Canadians Unemployment remains in a 7.8% quagmire ... much above the pre-Recession Rate of 5.3%. Our Barrel Meter is forecasting Crude Oil could peak @ $140/barrel this Summer. This does not bode well for our auto sector 'cuz our Gas Pump infers USA New Car Sales are decimated (or stymied from rebound) while Crude Price exceeds $90/barrel. The Barrel Meter bears further bad news with the warning of a new round of G-20 Recessions whilst oil breaches $108/barrel. After weathering these headwinds, I am certain Bank of Canada is preparing to normalize interest rates with a 1.5% bump ... an action sure to burst Canada's $82,000 Housing Bubble. This won't be pretty.
The Trendlines Research multi-model Riding Projection has charted the average of recognized international seat projections each month since October 2004. One is our very own contribution ... itself the most accurate of Canada's 2008 Election. Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model indicates PM Harper has a lead today in 149 Ridings, followed by: 77 NDP, 44 Liberals, 37 BQ & 1 Indep't.
When our own numbers are blended with the other current models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above. Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 7 national polls conducted April25-May1 by 14 international projection models. It reveals the governing Conservative Party has a lead in 148 Seats, followed by: 89 NDP, 49 Liberals, 21 Bloc & 1 Indep't. Looking forward, our momentum indicator overlay projects the Tories will be 7 MPs shy (148) of a Majority on Election Day, followed by: 91 NDP, 46 Liberals, 22 BQ & 1 Indep't.
Our Election Day targets are of course vulnerable and subject to the dynamics common to the lead-up and within Election Campaigns.
The chart's "March" data points were based on 11 models' converting of 8 national polls conducted Mar22-Apr3 2011
The chart's "Feb" data points were based on 7 models' converting of 6 national polls conducted Feb2-27 2011
The chart's "Jan" data points were based on 5 models' converting of 7 national polls conducted Jan9-Feb2 2011
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