TRI Canada GDP Targets (2011/6/21)
|2017Q3||end of cycle|
TRI downgrades 2011Q3 GDP to 3.1% as $91,ooo Canadian Housing Bubble takes its toll
Sept 21 2011 delayed FreeVenue public release of June 21st MemberVenue guidance ~ The TRENDLines Recession Indicator reveals the growth rate of economic activity fell in late Spring with inferred Real GDP of 5.2% in May & a 3.1% pace in June (Q2). In late May, StatCan announced data implying March's (Q1) GDP growth rate was 3.9% (TRI = 5.3%). Our leading indicators are projecting a 2.0% Q3 & 2.6% Q4. The model's fuzzy horizon forecasts 2.7% GDP in 2013Q1 on its journey to a business cycle high near 5% followed by an ultimate end-of-cycle low in 2017Q3.
Canada's economic recovery commenced Sept/2009. Business cycle expansion began afresh upon Real GDP surpassing its 2008 peak in Aug/2010. At 7.4% in May, the Unemployment Rate has completed one-third of the trip back to its pre-Recession 2007 low of 5.3% after rocketing to an 8.7% peak in Aug/2009.
Factors contributing to perceived weakness in our outlook continue to be: (a) waning Fed/Prov fiscal stimulus cheques; (b) an assault on exports by a "par-plus" Loonie; (c) the consequences of deteriorating "wealth effect" associated with an imminent correction of the record $93,000 Canadian Housing Bubble - including a probable assault on consumer/business confidence; (d) failure of the rebound in New Vehicle Sales in North America due to sustained breach of the $90/barrel threshold for crude oil (see our Gas Pump & Barrel Meter analysis). Cumulative high petroleum prices thru 2010/2011 trimmed potential GDP growth by 2.1% in May, tying the record dampening factor back in October 2008; & (e) similar consequences to general manufacturing if the crude oil price faces a sustained breach of $115/barrel ... a threshold which would signal a new round of G-20 Recessions.
original article: http://trendlines.ca/free/economics/RecessionIndicatorCanada/Canada-TRI.htm