Fossil Fuels Contribution to Atmospheric co2 Concentrations: 423ppm Peak in 2029
March 28th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 28th MemberVenue guidance ~ The 2011 annual analysis by Trendlines Research of fossil fuels emissions indicates their contribution should result in a peak of atmospheric co2 concentration of 423-ppm in 2029. It should be noted that while rising co2 concentration levels exhibit a correlated upwards tracking with total emissions, the decay pulse would indicate residual co2 will not follow the post peak downward path of emissions as quickly. Most co2 remains for a hundred years and traces linger for almost a millennium. By Year 2100, co2 will have declined to only 348-ppm ... taking us back to 1980 concentrations. The long-term effect of this anthropogenic influence appears to be a delaying of the next glacial event from 7000 AD to the next harmonic in 40000 AD.
Underlying the simultaneous total emissions & co2 concentration peak in 2029 are a coal emissions peak in 2025; PEAK DEMAND of All Liquids in 2029 (100-Mbd); and a natural gas emissions peak in 2035. These updated findings of Freddy Hutter's original Dec/2007 study continues to contrast substantially with the consensus view represented by the Hansen & Kharecha white paper (NASA Nov/2007) suggesting co2 will peak @ 585-ppm in Year 2100. It assumes a 96-Mbd oil peak in 2016 - but is based on a 2003 study by EIA/Wood.
The Trendlines Research study is founded on a premise that the GDP/Energy Demand scenarios within IPCC 2001 were overly optimistic in the sense they assumed the growth accompanying increases in population and rising disposable incomes in the BRIC nations would be fueled by fossil fuels. Unfortunately, there isn't enuf oil, coal and natural gas left in the ground to feed the magnificent projected Demand. The target GDP growth may well occur, but will be enabled by efficiencies, conservation and increases in nuclear generated power.
Year 2100 co2 ppm target is 348 ... not 695-730 indicated by IPCC premise of unlimited Fossil Fuel Resource
March 29th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 29th MemberVenue guidance ~ Update of the annual co2-GHG analysis by Trendlines Research reveals it is quite improbable co2 will ever attain the 695 ppm level for Year 2100 indicated by Mauna Loa gains, or the 730-ppm suggested by the trend of global readings. Both lofty figures wrongly assume there is an unlimited supply of coal, oil and natural gas to quench the appetite of developing BRIC nations. On the contrary, today's study reveals current estimates of remaining fossil fuel resource and declining growth rates for demand should see fossil fuel emissions peak in 2029. This event would result in a maximum co2 atmospheric concentration of 423-ppm (393 today), declining to 348-ppm by Year 2100.
This analysis shows atmospheric co2 concentrations and the related growth rate both continue to rise (see coral & yellow lines). Since the 60's, annual increases have risen from less than 1ppm to 3ppm/yr. If there is good news, it is that concentrations of the 16 Greenhouse Gases as tracked by the NASA GHG Index are growing more slowly (1.2% annually rather than the near 3%/yr back in the early 80's. This is thanx to headway in the methane and CFC fronts.
The infamous Al Gore graph spike (the stepladder one) is pure fantasy. Its absurd 800-ppm peak was based on an upward spike in co2 associated with the 1998 El Niño. This episode is viewable via the co2 emission growth rate in the chart below. The 2001 IPCC Report, while well intentioned, applied an extrapolated exponential increase in co2 and temp's based on that anomaly. Observations over the subsequent 10 years have shown albeit the co2 emission rate is indeed increasing, it is not at the alarming rate suggested by some scientists and social engineers of the IPCC 2001 era.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.