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A New Spreadsheet And A New Look For 2021. & Trading Signals Available By Subscription

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  • No Guess Trading subscriptions available for our successful options system.
  • A new spreadsheet with new stats linked below.
  • 227% annualized returns in January 2021 (19% for the month).
  • We have a 100% win rate in 2021 on 33 trades.

We've been posting our trade spreadsheet here for a while but we've given it a new look with some new stats.  For 2021, the stats are:

  • 33 trades, all winners
  • Average trade: 5.05%
  • Average trade duration: only 8.1 days
  • Average annualized returns: 227%  (19% in January)

That is: average trade * 365 / average duration.  Because the trades are only 8 days long, you can make 45 of them in a year.  Thus, 45 x 5.05% is more than 225% returns for the year.  It's real.  We're actually doing this.    

Importantly, we are getting those returns not by getting lucky on a few big wins, but by making lots of small trades with a very high probability of success.  The returns have been steady, not sudden.  

What's best of all is how relaxed we are.  We never have to guess about which way our stocks will go or whether we made the right directional choice.  We pick options that are so far from the money -- usually 30% or more -- that we almost never see a loss.  If the stock goes up, great.  If it goes down, then we still winso long as it doesn't fall below the deep cushion we had upon trade entry.  We have had some of our stocks crash 50% and we still profited because our option was more than 50% out of the money.  Cray... but not.

This is why we call it No Guess Trading.   We just don't worry about being right.  We trade and set our exit orders and forget it.  Within a couple of weeks (on average), we get a ping that the trade exited.  We high five and enter a new one.  Rinse and repeat.  We have about 10 to 20 positions open at a time, because we allocate 5% to 10% of our trading principle to each trade.  This is what we recommend for you as well. 

And when we are wrong, the beauty of options trading is that it provides flexibility to manage a trade back into a win, e.g., by rolling the option to the next expiration.  Sometimes it's best to cut and run, though.  Sometimes not.  We tell you how to fix these trades if they ever happen.  

Subscribe for trading signals so you can participate.  Here's how it works:  We send a few signals every market day.  You can use these to build a portfolio of about 10 to 20 trades and then you just forget about it.  When an exit order comes through, you'll get a fresh set of signals from us the next day from which to pick a new trade.  And that's it. 

Whenever any of our trades go south, we will email you with suggestions on how to manage the option, e.g., by rolling, etc.  We are with you every step.

Email us at NoGuessTrading@gmail.com.  Monthly subscriptions are $49.99.

Our website is coming soon!

Below is the spreadsheet, with a preview of open positions to kick of F5 week:

No Guess Trading spreadsheet 2021

Good luck and happy trading!


Analyst's Disclosure: I am/we are long all the stocks in the spreadsheet.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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