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Disney And Fair Valuation

|Includes: The Walt Disney Company (DIS)

DIS (Disney) Stock and Fair Valuation Historical data and future forecast

Year

Share Price =
PE*EPS

P/E

EPS

EPS Growth

EPS Growth %age

PEG

2010

38.96

18.55

2.1

0.41

19.52%

0.95

2011

37.42

14.91

2.51

0.65

25.90%

0.58

2012

50.43

15.96

3.16

0.43

13.61%

1.17

2013

79.20

22.06

3.59

0.7

19.50%

1.13

2014

103.47

24.12

4.29

0.76

17.72%

1.36

2015

103.37

20.47

5.05

0.52

10.30%

1.99

2016

104.77

18.81

5.57

0.59

10.59%

1.78

2017

105.77

17.17

6.16

0.57

9.25%

1.86

Derived from above data

EPS Growth Range

Minimum

10.30%

Year 2010-15

 

Maximum

19.52%

Year 2010-15

 

Conservative

10.30%

Minimum of year 2010-15

 

Average

14.91%

Average of above MIN and MAX

 

Historical

17.76%

Average of year 2010-15

       

PE

Minimum

14.91

Year 2010-17

 

Average

19.01

Year 2010-17

Future forecasts

Conservative EPS Growth with MIN PE and AVG PE

       

Conservative PE

Average PE

Future EPS Calculation

 

At Conservative
EPS Growth Rate

EPS

Share Price = PE*EPS

Share Price = PE*EPS

2015

Current EPS

NA

5.05

75.30

95.98

2016

Projected at:

10.30%

5.57

83.05

105.86

2017

Projected at:

10.30%

6.14

91.60

116.77

2018

Projected at:

10.30%

6.78

101.03

128.79

2019

Projected at:

10.30%

7.47

111.44

142.05

2020

Projected at:

10.30%

8.24

122.91

156.68

Average EPS Growth with MIN PE and AVG PE

       

Conservative PE

Average PE

Future EPS Calculation

 

At Average
EPS Growth Rate

EPS

Share Price = PE*EPS

Share Price = PE*EPS

2015

Current EPS

NA

5.05

75.30

95.98

2016

Projected at:

14.91%

5.80

86.52

110.29

2017

Projected at:

14.91%

6.67

99.42

126.74

2018

Projected at:

14.91%

7.66

114.25

145.64

2019

Projected at:

14.91%

8.80

131.28

167.35

2020

Projected at:

14.91%

10.12

150.86

192.30

Future Share Price Calculation

Let us just consider the conservative EPS growth with MIN and AVG PE method.

Future EPS Calculation

   

Conservative PE

Average PE

   

Share Price = PE*EPS

Share Price = PE*EPS

Current EPS (2015)

5.05

75.30

95.98

Time Frame (Years)

10

   

Projected EPS in 10 Years

13.46

200.64

255.76

EPS Growth Rate

10.30%

   

Forecast at 10% growth rate for 10 years

Current Valuation

Looking for growth of investment at:

10.00%

 

Time Horizon (Years)

10

 

Stock Price in such years as above row

200.64

255.76

Current stock price should be <=

77.35

98.61

Including dividend

Dividend

1.28%

   

Payment term (Semi-annually)

0.66

   

Total Per Year

1.32

   

Time Horizon (Years)

10

   

Total in above years

13.2

   
       

Stock Price in such years as above row

 

213.84

268.96

Current stock price should be <=

 

82.44

103.69

Forecast at 9% growth rate for 10 years

If you tweak the expected growth rate 1 percent lower:

Current Valuation

Looking for growth of investment at:

9.00%

 

Time Horizon (Years)

10

 

Stock Price in such years as above row

200.64

255.76

Current stock price should be <=

84.75

108.03

Including dividend

Dividend

1.28%

   

Payment term (Semi-annually)

0.66

   

Total Per Year

1.32

   

Time Horizon (Years)

10

   

Total in above years

13.2

   
       

Stock Price in such years as above row

 

213.84

268.96

Current stock price should be <=

 

90.33

113.61

Disclosure: I am/we are long DIS, CMCSA, FOXA.

Additional disclosure: I hold position in DIS.