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The Leveraged System Buys UPRO And TNA

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The S&P 500 hit a 20-day high today, which is a signal to buy UPRO, and HYG also hit a 20-day high, which is a signal to buy both TNA and UPRO. These had both been sold on 3/18/21 when HYG hit a 55-day low.  The portfolio of $116,519 had been in cash since then.

UPRO was sold for $86.50, and TNA was sold for $95.50 on 3/18. I paid a higher price than what the shares went for at the close.  There was a sharp, little sell-off at the close.  I will use the prices I paid.  The system spends one-third of the cash on UPRO and one-third on TNA. The other third is left in cash. One-third came to $38,839, and that bought 429.8 shares of TNA at $90.35 a share, cheaper than where they were sold on 3/18.  428.6 shares of UPRO were bought at $90.60, a higher price than where they were sold.

The R2000 is well off its highs and very volatile, and so this purchase is quite scary.  Also, the advance in T-bond yields should cause an advance in junk bond yields.  Can the credit spreads between junk bonds and T-bonds narrow even more?  Could T-bond yields decrease?  I'm skeptical, but we'll see.  I did make the purchases of TNA and UPRO in the amounts that the system said.

The initial stop-loss for TNA is the closing price of the R2000, at which it was bought, minus 2x the average true range. That is 2220.52 minus 2 ATR = 2108.95.  So a drop below that is a sell. That stop-loss is changed if the R2000 advances to a 20-day high, currently at 2360.17.  If hit, the stop=loss will change to the 20-day high minus 2ATR.

In the case of UPRO, the S&P 500 did hit a 20-day high at 3983.87. The stop-loss is at 2ATR below that value, which comes to 3879.34.  The stop-loss will be reset if the S&P hits the 20-day high plus one ATR at 4036.13.  That changes slightly every day as the ATR changes.

HYG closed today at $87.18, and will presumably open lower because of the dividend.  The dividend is usually around $0.31.  The stop-loss using HYG is the 20-day high ($87.00) that was hit today, minus 2ATR.  That would be $86.52, but adjusting for a $0.31 dividend makes that stop-loss $86.21.  This applies to both TNA and UPRO.

TMF will be bought if the 30-yr T-bond yield drops below its 20-day low, which is 2.243% and rising. Today the bond closed with a yield of 2.425%. TMF will also be bought if the 3-mths/30-yr spread hits a 20-day low (2.213%). Since the 3-months yield is stuck in the vicinity of 0.03%, the two indicators are little different, and their buy points will probably be hit the same day.

The YTD gain for the system is 3.27%, but the YTD total gain for IWM is 12.90%. SPY's total return is 6.35% YTD, and the total return for TLT is -13.92%. So a portfolio that was one-third each in TLT, SPY and IWM as of 12/31/20 would have had a return of 1.78% YTD. The system beat that, and as I reported last time, it gained 63.2% for all of 2020.

Analyst's Disclosure: I am/we are long TNA UPRO REM PTY JNK.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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