- WLI is 128.9 up from the prior week's reading of 128.1 and equal to the reading for the week ending December 24, 2010. These are the highest readings since 36 weeks ago on May 7, 2010 when WLI was at 131.9.
- The lowest reading for WLI on record was 105.3 for the week ending March 6, 2009.
- Last week's ECRI WLI Update for January 14, 2011
- Since apparently bottoming at -10.3 for the week of August 27, WLI growth moved higher or was flat for the 21st consecutive week to plus 3.1% from plus 3.6% a week ago.
- WLI growth of 4.1% is a 34-week high.
The last time WLI growth was higher was the reading for the week ending May 21, 2010 when it stood at positive 4.9%.
- The WLI for the week ending 1/21/11 will be released on 1/28/11
- Occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average.
- ECRI uses the WLI level and WLI growth rate to HELP predict turns in the business cycle and growth rate cycle respectively. Those target cycles are not the same as GDP level or growth, but rather a set of coincident indicators (including production, employment income and sales) that make up the coincident index. Based on two additional decades of data not available to the general public, there are a couple of occasions (in 1951 and 1966) when WLI growth fell well below negative ten, but no recessions resulted (although there were clear growth slowdowns).
- For a better understanding of ECRI's indicators, read their book, Beating the Business Cycle.
- Nov 30, 2010 "ECRI Calls for Revival of US Economic Growth"
- Oct 28, 2010 "The much-feared double-dip recession is not going to happen"
- Oct. 28, 2010 ECRI Warns of High Inflation Nightmare From QE2
- Sept. 24, 2010 ECRI - Premature to Predict New Recession
- July 01, 2010 ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators Widely Misunderstood
- Dec. 04, 2009: ECRI Warns of Lasting High Unemployment Despite Economic Recovery
- July 31, 2009: ECRI Predicts End of Home Price Downturn
- July 21, 2009: ECRI Predicts The End of the Recession is Imminent
- April 3, 2009: ECRI Says US Business Cycle Recovery Ahead
- March 28, 2008: ECRI Calls it "A Recession of Choice"
Disclosure: I am long SPY.
Additional disclosure: I also have a long position in SPY in my investment letter.
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