The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months . AAII is the "American Association of Individual Investors." For the survey, Individual members of the AAII are polled on a weekly basis. Only one vote per member is accepted in each weekly voting period. The AAII reports the weekly results at www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/.
As of 04/28/2010, the AAII members are:
- Bullish: 41.36%
- Neutral: 30.00%
- Bearish: 28.64%
The 52 wk MA of Weekly sentiment is about as low as it was in 1994 before the market put on a great 5 year advance. Will this repeat? Post your answer in the comments section below.
This chart shows the 52-week moving average of the AAII bull/bear index (American Association of Individual Investors). 52 weeks removes seasonality from the number and gives startling results.
- A contrarian is a person with a preference for taking a position opposed to that of the majority view prevalent in the group of which they are a part.
- More about Technical Analysis & Sentiment Indicators
Disclosure: Long SPY