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More Downside Expected For U.S. Equities

|Includes: DIA, QQQ, SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)

The S&P 500 (and SPY) is down about 1% today, which brings its decline in April to about 3%. This prompted some observers to call for a rebound, for various reasons. Volatility dominates in the short term, and daily market moves are certainly hard to predict. But over longer term, 3-6 months, we expect the market to go lower.

With our tactical asset allocation model (PAR model), we focus on mid-term, 6-month horizon. On March 31st, the model gave the expected return for the S&P of -5.2% - see the chart below.

Take a look here at my original post with the March model result.

seekingalpha.com/instablog/2192311-taaco...

Visit us at taacomplete.com for more info.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.