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US Dollar Steady To Up after no ECB Rate Change -- Bullish for the US Dollar, Bearish for Equities

|Includes: DIA, QQQ, SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)

The action of the US Dollar so far this morning is very bullish. Both the ECB and the BOE left their interest rates unchanged today. There had been speculation that the ECB would lower rates in the face of a drastically slowing European Economy. However, the ECB did not. One might think this would mean that the US Dollar would go down against the Euro. The opposite has happened. The Euro is at this writing slightly down against the US Dollar. Ditto the British Pound. This is very bullish for the US Dollar in the near term. It may mean that people see the likely further slowing of the European economy (due partially to this non-change in bank policy) as a more serious threat than US inflation. This may actually prove true in the long run. This bodes well for the US Dollar in the near term. It may bode ill for oil. Oil looks like it may have topped out for the near term. There was an almost 3M barrel build in US stores on Wed. Recent articles have indicated that analysts feel the economic recovery can only support about $60/barrel oil. Oil is up today, but that may be partially just a rebound play from yesterday's down movement. We may see oil move farther down in coming days, especially if the US Dollar continues to strengthen. If this does occurs, it is likely it will pave the way for a US equities market retracement. The S&P500 index is heavily weighted with oil. If oil stocks go down appreciably, they will take that index down with them. Plus if the US Dollar strengthens, it may well curtail technology stock growth for the short term. Many technology companies benefit when the Euro and other foreign currencies move higher. The prices of their products in Europe tend to stay the same (or get a little cheaper). This means the profits calculated in US Dollars go up (with a weakening US Dollar). If the US Dollar is weak, it generally also means the US can sell more US exports to Europe.  If the US Dollar strengthens their profits fall in the short term. This would tend to argue for a decline in the NASDAQ. The groundwork for a serious retracement may now be in place. The Schork Oil Outlook agrees that a near term down trend in oil prices is likely. Others are pointing to a possible "triple top" as a signal for an equities downturn. The general sentiment of the market does seem to be slowly changing to negative.