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The Continued Deceleration Of New Home Sales

Summary

Headlines said new home sales modestly improved in June 2017

But the rolling averages continued to decelerate

Sales prices were significantly down.

The headlines say new home sales modestly improved and at market expectations. Our analysis is showing a continuing deceleration of new home sales.

This month the backward revisions were moderately down, and the rolling averages significantly declined. Because of weather and other factors, the rolling averages are the way to view this series - and the rolling averages are at the lower levels seen since the beginning of 2016.

The sales prices were significantly down.

This data series is suffering from methodology issues which manifest as significant backward revision - and this month the revisions were up. Home sales move in spurts and jumps - so this is why we view this series using a three month rolling average.

Econintersect analysis:

  • unadjusted sales growth accelerated 2.5 % month-over-month.
  • unadjusted year-over-year sales up 10.0 % year-over-year. Year-over-year growth rate this month was within the range of growth seen last 12 months.
  • three month unadjusted trend rate of growth decelerated 3.8 % month-over-month - is up 5.7 % year-over-year.

US Census Headlines:

  • seasonally adjusted sales up 0.8 % month-over-month
  • seasonally adjusted year-over-year sales up 9.1 %
  • market expected (from Bloomberg) seasonally adjusted annualized sales of 590 K to 630 K (consensus 612 K) versus the actual at 610 K.

The quantity of new single family homes for sale remains well below historical levels.

Seasonally Adjusted New Homes for Sale

The headlines of the data release:

Sales of new single-family houses in June 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.8 percent (±12.1 percent)* above the revised May rate of 605,000 and is 9.1 percent (±14.4 percent)* above the June 2016 estimate of 559,000.

Unadjusted New Home Sales Monthly Volumes In Thousands

The median sales price of new houses sold in June 2017 was $310,800. The average sales price was $379,500.

Unadjusted Median New Home Sales Price

The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 272,000. This represents a supply of 5.4 months at the current sales rate.

This trend of deceleration may only  be temporary - but I doubt it.

Other Economic News this Week:

The Econintersect Economic Index for July 2017 continues to forecast strengthening economic fundamentals - with the index showing normal growth for the third month in a row. Six-month employment growth forecast indicates modest improvement in the rate of growth.

Bankruptcies this Week from bankruptcydata.comnone

Please visit our landing page for a summary of all of our analysis this past week.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.