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Summary Of Economic Analysis For Week Ending 14April2012

Other Economic News this Week:

The Econintersect economic forecast for April 2012 shows a less good growth. There has been a degradation in our government and finished goods pulse points.

ECRI has called a recession. Their data looks ahead at least 6 months and the bottom line for them is that a recession is a certainty. The size and depth is unknown but the recession start has been revised to hit around mid-year 2012.

This week ECRI's WLI index value improved to 1.4 - the best index value since August 2011. This is the twelfth week of index improvement. This index is now indicating the economy six months from today will be marginally better than today.

Initial unemployment claims essentially increased from 357,000 (reported last week) to 380,000. Historically, claims exceeding 400,000 per week usually occur when employment gains are less than the workforce growth, resulting in an increasing unemployment rate (background here and here). The real gauge - the 4 week moving average - rose from 361,750 (reported last week) to 368,500. Because of the noise (week-to-week movements from abnormal events AND the backward revisions to previous weeks releases), the 4-week average remains the reliable gauge.

Data released this week which contained economically intuitive components (forward looking) were rail movements and the import portion of the trade balance . Although overall rail is contracting year-over-year, economic related components are weakly improving. The growth in imports has always been a positive sign of USA economic growth.

Weekly Economic Release Scorecard:

March CPI: Moderated from 2.7% from 2.9% year-ver-year
Preliminary April Michigan Sentiment: Consumer Sentiment Down Again
Caught on Tape: President Obama and Rod Blagojevich
Inflation Continues to Moderate in March 2012 PPI
Trade Data for February 2012 Is Good, Export Spike May be Transitory
Oil Ratio to Natural Gas Goes Parabolic
When Billionaires Clash
Update: The Case Against Investing in the Dow Industrials (For Now)
Import-Export Prices Moderates Year-over-Year in March 2012
Five Ways for China to Rebalance
60 Minutes European Crisis Review
Buffett Trashes Gold Because It Is Like Tulips
February 2012 JOLTS Continues to Predict Moderate Jobs Growth
February 2012 Wholesale Sales Great, Complete Series Reset
Steve Keen Interview on the Debate With Paul Krugman
Stocks and a GDP Slowdown
Another Kick at the Employment Can Compliments of Conference Board
March 2012 Rail Movements Contracts, All Due to Coal
The Great DebateĀ©: Keen and Krugman on Money and Banking
Silver Price Manipulation - Not If but Who's Doing It
Reviewing the Bull Market Stampede
It's Time for a Fiscal Policy Comeback
The Week Ahead: More Excuses for Selling?
February 2012 Consumer Credit Growth Unchanged at 4.3%
Neville Chamberlain and Barack Obama Are Known for Appeasement
Investor Warning: US Banking Crisis Is Not Over
Trefis: Week in Review 7 April 2012
Unemployment Numbers Are for Dummies

Bankruptcy this Week: Reddy Ice Holdings and Reddy Ice Corporation

Failed Banks this Week:None

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.