Retail sales were up according to US Census headline data - but slightly above expectations. The unadjusted rolling average improved.
Things to consider when viewing this data:
- it is not inflation adjusted - and inflation in this sector is now running over 1.5 %.
- the three month rolling averages of the unadjusted data improved
- our analysis says this month was about the same as upwardly adjusted last month.
The relationship between year-over-year growth in inflation adjusted retail sales and retail employment are now correlating.
Backward data revisions were upward.
- unadjusted sales rate of growth was unchanged month-over-month, and up4.5 % year-over-year.
- unadjusted sales 3 month rolling year-over-year average growth accelerated 0.5 % month-over-month, up 4.3 % year-over-year.
- unadjusted sales (but inflation adjusted) up 2.8 % year-over-year
- this is an advance report. Please see caveats below showing variations between the advance report and the "final".
- in the seasonally adjusted data - the major weakness was building materials, gasoline stations, and non-store retailers. There was significant strength in motor vehicles, furniture, foods and sporting goods..
- seasonally adjusted sales up 0.2 % month-over-month, up 4.6 % year-over-year.
- the market was expecting (from Bloomberg / Econoday):
|seasonally adjusted||Consensus Range||Consensus||Actual|
|Retail Sales - M/M change||-0.5 % to 0.5 %||+0.1 %||+0.2 %|
|Retail Sales less autos - M/M change||-0.1 % to 0.5 %||+0.2 %||+0.1 %|
|Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change||0.0 % to 0.5 %||+0.3 %||+0.3 %|
|Control Group - M/M change||0.3 % to 0.4 %||+0.3 %||+0.3 %|
Year-over-Year Change - Unadjusted Retail Sales (blue line) and Inflation Adjusted Retail Sales (red line)
Retail sales per capita seems to be in a long term downtrend (but short term trends appear to be growing - see graph below).
Year-over-Year Change - Per Capita Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales
Overall, the consumer is still not driving GDP growth.
Other Economic News this Week:
The Econintersect Economic Index for November 2017 returned to the range of normal growth after last month's brief dip. Still, the economic fundamentals are somewhat chaoic. Six-month employment growth forecast is now indicating slowing growth.
Bankruptcies this Week from bankruptcydata.com: Pacific Drilling, Real Industry (f/k/a Signature Group Holdings), Privately-held Velocity Holding
Please visit our landing page for a summary of all of our analysis this past week.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.