The headlines say seasonally adjusted Industrial Production (IP) was down month-over-month. Our analysis shows strong improvement.
There was insignificant revision to the existing data over the last 6 months. The best way to view this is the 3 month rolling averages which improved. Industrial production is in a long term upward trend.
The reason for the headwinds in industrial production was due to mining.
Manufacturing employment rate of growth is accelerating year-over-year..
- Headline seasonally adjusted Industrial Production (IP) was down 0.1 % month-over-month and up 3.7 % year-over-year.
- Econintersect's analysis using the unadjusted data is that IP growth accelerated 0.8 % month-over-month, and is up 4.2 % year-over-year.
- The unadjusted year-over-year rate of growth was up 0.4 % from last month using a three month rolling average, and is up 3.8 % year-over-year.
- The market was expecting (from Bloomberg / Econoday):
|Headline Seasonally Adjusted||Consensus Range||Consensus||Actual|
|IP (month over month change)||-0.3 % to 0.5 %||+0.2 %||-0.1 %|
|IP Subindex Manufacturing (month over month change)||-0.1 % to 0.3 %||+0.2 %||+0.0 %|
|Capacity Utilization||77.7 % to 78.2 %||78.0 %||77.5 %|
IP headline index has three parts - manufacturing, mining and utilities - manufacturing was up 0.0 % this month (up 1.8 % year-over-year), mining down 1.0 % (up 8.8 % year-over-year), and utilities were up 0.6 % (up 10.8 % year-over-year). Note that utilities are 10.8 % of the industrial production index, whilst mining also is 10.8 %.
Comparing Seasonally Adjusted Year-over-Year Change of the Industrial Production Index (blue line) with Components Manufacturing (red line), Utilities (green line), and Mining (orange line)
Unadjusted Industrial Production year-over-year growth for 2 years has been near or below zero - it is currently trending up and in expansion.
Economic downturns have been signaled by only watching the manufacturing portion of Industrial Production. Historically manufacturing year-over-year growth has been negative when a recession is imminent.
Seasonally Adjusted Manufacturing Index of Industrial Production - Year-over-Year Growth
Seasonally Adjusted Capacity Utilization - Year-over-Year Change - Seasonally Adjusted - Total Industry (blue line) and Manufacturing Only (red line)
Econintersect uses unadjusted data and graphs the data YoY in monthly groups.
Other Economic News this Week:
The Econintersect Economic Index for February 2018 Economic Index declined and returned to territory associated with modest economic growth. Note that this index has been in a general down trend since July 2017
Bankruptcies this Week from bankruptcydata.com: none
Please visit our landing page to view all of our analysis this past week.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.