June 19 2018: Morning Thoughts

Jun. 19, 2018 8:29 AM ET
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Macro, Contrarian, Bonds

Contributor Since 2012

Since 1978 have experienced and studied many market cycles in bonds, stocks, options, etc. Tend to question herd thinking, some might call me a contrarian. A big mistake made when young (1970’s) by avoiding bonds and investing in risky stocks. It was a great lesson in risk management. Seek long-term strategic trends while keeping an eye open for short-term tactical opportunities. Pay close attention to cash-flow statement, balance sheet and the allocation of capital. Warning flags go up when board of directors allocate owners money to departing owners via share repurchase programs. Very few share repurchase programs have been found that add value, but many that hurt fixed income investors.

Summary

  • S&P 500 Futures are lower.
  • Interesting Bloomberg article worthy of reading.
  • Thoughts on the markets.

The stock index futures suggests that it could be a rough open. The S&P 500 future is down over 30 points to 2,749.75. The contract daily trading range has been 2,735.75 to 2,767.75.

Performance of S&P 500 Year-to-Date

Chart
^SPX data by YCharts

Bloomberg has an interesting article on the number of stocks in China that fell the 10% daily limit. See article here 

The stock markets appear to be reacting to tariff and trade concerns. The Twit below might help explain the concerns.

A slowing world economy is a lose/lose situation. 

The trade tiff with China has me concerned that China might either reduce purchases or begin selling US Treasuries securities and place further upward pressure on interest rates. 

It should be an interesting trading day, that is for sure.

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