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PEAK OIL UPDATE

Three separate reports show an interesting picture of our future. The facts are that worldwide oil production peaked in 2005 at 86 million barrels per day. Even with the spike in prices, production never got over this level in the last 4 years. We are currently using 85 million barrels per day. The usage has been depressed by the worldwide downturn. But guess what? Americans are back to the roads in their Hummers, SUVs, and pickup trucks. No need to worry about that nasty future and prepare. We are driving as many miles as we did in 2007 before the crisis.

Car sales in China and India are off the charts. I wonder if they drive them after they buy them? I wonder what they are fueled by? OIL. So let me get this straight. Americans are utilizing the same level of oil as 2007, while the Chinese and Indians are utilizing more oil than 2007. Oil production peaked at 86 million barrels in 2005. It is likely to fall in the next two years. When daily production is 84 million barrels and daily usage is 87 million barrels next year, I wonder what will happen to the price of oil? Take a guess. Enjoy your $2.50 a gallon gas. Anyone who can't see $5.00 gas on the way, just isn't paying attention. 

Travel on all roads and streets changed by +2.3% (5.8 billion vehicle miles) for July 2009 as compared with July 2008. Travel for the month is estimated to be 263.4 billion vehicle miles.
 

[MilesRollingJuly09.jpg]

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                                 Here is a Bloomberg graph of China car sales over the last three years

Car sales spike in Beijing, capital nears 4 million auto mark
BEIJING, Sept 18 (AFP) Sep 18, 2009
Sales of new cars in Beijing have spiked to about 2,000 a day, a trend that will put up to four million vehicles on the streets of China's capital by year's end, state media said Friday. August 2009 Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

About 60,100 cars were sold in the month of August in Beijing -- the largest number of auto purchases this year and nearly double the amount of vehicles sold in the same month in 2008, the China Daily said.

Similar monthly sales are expected through to December, with private buyers powering the spree, the paper said, citing Beijing auto dealers.

Car purchases in Beijing averaged about 1,200 a day in the first seven months of 2009, earlier reports said.

If sales remains at 2,000 cars a day, the capital will have a total of four million vehicles on its already jam-packed roads by the end of 2009, the paper said -- an increase of one million cars in just two years.

Beijing has for years been one of the most polluted cities in the world, due in part to the fast-rising number of cars on the roads.

The government has implemented several policies to try to curb air pollution, including traffic control measures, moving factories out of the city, and requiring cars and buses to use cleaner fuels.

But the China Daily reported that some wealthy people were trying to skirt vehicle controls, which require motorists to keep their cars off the roads one day a week, by buying a second or even a third vehicle.

 

 

 

 

 


This Analysis has been jointly prepared by GTO & Vasudeva. Many thanks to Vasudeva for his support.

Abbreviations used : MOM (Month on Month) and YOY (Year on Year).

The festive season has begun for car manufacturers; upcoming Diwali period alongwith economic recovery will only take the growth further. Domestic auto sales grew a stunning 22.4% (YOY) in August 2009 (29% yoy in 7/09). Passenger car sales (including utility vehicles) were up 152,100 units sold, a gain of 28,000 cars YOY. The hatchback segments continue to grow (40.8% & 33.7% respectively), partially at the expense of C segment sedans (down by 2%). Clearly, the slew of new premium hatchbacks is drawing customers by the droves. Does the market prefer a premium hatch to an entry level sedan? You bet. The executive & luxury segments have also grown (premium brands rejoice, big fish feeling condident), yet their actual numbers are too small (double digits) to have any impact overall. UV (driven by BPOs & tourist taxis) recovering (up 7%), indicating an IT/software/travel industry recovery.

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GTO