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FUN WITH FORECLOSURES

Foreclosures for 2009 will be approximately 3.5 million. They are currently pacing at 3.8 million. Annual homes sales are in the 5 million range. Only about a quarter of these foreclosures have hit the market. There are hundreds of thousands more houses where the banks haven't started the foreclosure process because they don't want to take the write-off on their books. With the tsunamai of Alt-A and Option Arms resetting in the next 18 months, does anyone expect the number of foreclosures to decline? With unemployment continuing to rise, does that lead to more or less foreclosures? In 2010 we will see in excess of 4 million foreclosures. Will this lead to higher or lower home prices?

Combine a further decline in the housing market with an unavoidable collapse in the commercial real estate market and a real unemployment rate in excess of 20% and you have a recipe for a great stock market rally. Enjoy the ride.

Kudos to Nevada for having 1 in 23 houses in foreclosure in September. Not an easy feat. Well done.

 

U.S. FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY INCREASES 5 PERCENT IN Q3
By RealtyTrac Staff   

 

U.S. Foreclosure Activity Sets New Quarterly Record, Up 23 Percent From Q3 2008

IRVINE, Calif. – Oct. 15, 2009 — RealtyTrac® (realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its U.S. Foreclosure Market Report™ for Q3 2009, which shows that foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 937,840 properties in the third quarter, a 5 percent increase from the previous quarter and an increase of nearly 23 percent from Q3 2008. One in every 136 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing during the quarter — the highest quarterly foreclosure rate since RealtyTrac began issuing its report in the first quarter of 2005.

Foreclosure filings were reported on 343,638 properties in September, a 4 percent decrease from the previous month but a 29 percent increase from September 2008. Despite the monthly decrease, September’s total was still the third highest monthly total since the RealtyTrac report began in January 2005, behind only July and August of this year.

“Bank repossessions, or REOs, jumped 21 percent from the second quarter to the third quarter, corresponding to jumps in defaults and scheduled auctions in the previous two quarters,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “REO activity increased from the previous quarter in all but two states and the District of Columbia, indicating that lenders may be starting to work through some of the pent-up foreclosure inventory caused by legislative delays, loan modification efforts and high volumes of distressed properties.”

Nevada, Arizona, California post top state foreclosure rates in third quarter
Nevada continued to document the nation’s highest state foreclosure rate in the third quarter, with one in 23 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing — nearly six times the national average. Foreclosure filings were reported on 47,925 Nevada properties during the quarter, an increase of nearly 10 percent from the previous quarter and an increase of nearly 59 percent from the third quarter of 2008. Nevada REO activity in the third quarter increased 29 percent from the previous quarter and scheduled auctions increased 26 percent from the previous quarter, but defaults decreased 8 percent from the previous quarter.

Arizona posted the nation’s second highest state foreclosure rate in the third quarter, with one in every 53 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing, and California posted the nation’s third highest state foreclosure rate, also with one in every 53 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the quarter.

Other states with foreclosure rates ranking among the top 10 in the third quarter were Florida, Idaho, Utah, Georgia, Michigan, Colorado and Illinois.

Six states account for more than 60 percent of nation’s third quarter total
California, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Illinois and Michigan accounted for 62 percent of the nation’s total foreclosure activity in the third quarter, with 579,541 properties receiving foreclosure filings in the six states combined.

With 250,054 properties receiving foreclosure filings during the quarter, California accounted for nearly 27 percent of the nation’s total. The state’s foreclosure activity decreased nearly 2 percent from the previous quarter thanks to a 10 percent drop in default notices, but scheduled auctions increased 4 percent from the previous quarter and REOs increased 12 percent from the previous quarter.

Florida foreclosure activity decreased less than 1 percent from the previous quarter, but the state still posted the second highest foreclosure activity total for the third quarter. Foreclosure filings were reported on 156,924 Florida properties, a 23 percent increase from Q3 2008. Default notices in Florida decreased 6 percent from the previous quarter while scheduled auctions increased 5 percent from the previous quarter and REOs increased 16 percent from the previous quarter.

Arizona posted the nation’s third highest foreclosure activity total in the third quarter, with 50,342 properties receiving a foreclosure filing during the quarter — a 5 percent increase from the previous quarter and a 25 percent increase from Q3 2008.

Nevada posted the nation’s fourth highest foreclosure activity total, with 47,925 properties receiving a foreclosure filing in the third quarter, followed by Illinois, with 37,270 properties receiving a foreclosure filing, and Michigan, with 37,026 properties receiving a foreclosure filing. All three states reported increasing foreclosure activity from the previous quarter and from Q3 2008.

Other states with foreclosure activity totals among the nation’s 10 highest were Georgia (33,385), Texas (29,838), Ohio (29,645), and New Jersey (18,108).

Report methodology
The RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report provides a count of the total number of properties with at least one foreclosure filing reported during the month or quarter — broken out by type of filing at the state and national level. Data is also available at the individual county level for both Q1 2009 and March 2009. Data is collected from more than 2,200 counties nationwide, and those counties account for more than 90 percent of the U.S. population. RealtyTrac’s report incorporates documents filed in all three phases of foreclosure: Default — Notice of Default (NOD) and Lis Pendens (LIS); Auction — Notice of Trustee Sale and Notice of Foreclosure Sale (NTS and NFS); and Real Estate Owned, or REO properties (that have been foreclosed on and repurchased by a bank). If more than one foreclosure document is filed against a property during the month or quarter, only the most recent filing is counted in the report.

 

U.S. Foreclosure Market Data by State – Q3 2009

    Properties with Foreclosure Filings    
Rate Rank State Name NOD LIS NTS NFS REO Total 1/every X HH (rate) %Change from Q2 09 %Change from Q3 08

--

United States

153,255

188,986

263,957

94,590

237,052

937,840

136

5.40

22.50

31

Alabama

8

0

3,808

0

2,135

5,951

359

-7.07

173.86*

33

Alaska

9

0

534

0

221

764

369

29.93

36.43

2

Arizona

20

0

36,176

0

14,146

50,342

53

5.07

24.55

21

Arkansas

339

0

3,002

0

1,837

5,178

249

11.59

39.61*

3

California

111,741

1

87,377

0

50,935

250,054

53

-1.52

18.60

9

Colorado

41

0

11,437

0

4,787

16,265

131

11.43

12.53

25

Connecticut

0

3,422

0

408

1,283

5,113

281

68.86

10.00

38

Delaware

0

4

0

483

291

778

500

-8.79

-11.69

 

District of Columbia

405

0

619

0

159

1,183

240

19.37

-11.05

4

Florida

1

95,790

1

39,403

21,729

156,924

56

-0.71

23.27

7

Georgia

53

1

22,088

0

11,243

33,385

119

6.69

25.06

14

Hawaii

449

0

1,499

0

795

2,743

185

29.02

141.46

5

Idaho

2,916

0

3,021

0

594

6,531

97

28.06

153.53*

10

Illinois

0

18,585

1

8,980

9,704

37,270

141

13.68

30.29

20

Indiana

0

2,362

0

4,504

5,235

12,101

230

-12.75

-15.77

43

Iowa

1

0

658

0

1,292

1,951

681

17.81

31.91*

31

Kansas

0

538

0

1,129

1,735

3,402

358

39.71

47.08

41

Kentucky

1

1,050

0

1,126

1,102

3,279

581

15.30

12.45

37

Louisiana

0

762

0

2,092

1,132

3,986

466

21.30*

98.70*

42

Maine

0

234

0

577

242

1,053

662

27.02

33.12

12

Maryland

3

6,795

0

5,795

2,210

14,803

157

58.83

85.64

17

Mass.

1

7,779

0

3,159

1,728

12,667

215

17.53

34.81

8

Michigan

11,454

0

10,575

0

14,997

37,026

122

9.50**

22.31**

18

Minnesota

31

0

5,450

0

5,139

10,620

217

16.27

100.26

40

Mississippi

4

1

841

0

1,374

2,220

565

50.51*

241.01*

30

Missouri

24

0

4,470

0

3,398

7,892

335

8.26

-11.17†

47

Montana

1

0

19

0

273

293

1,486

94.04

-6.69

45

Nebraska

241

247

12

6

229

735

1,062

75.84*

-29.67

1

Nevada

19,949

0

16,329

0

11,647

47,925

23

9.68

58.88

27

New Hampshire

14

0

1,372

0

558

1,944

306

-5.08

-2.21

15

New Jersey

0

11,816

0

3,878

2,414

18,108

193

44.59

1.20

35

New Mexico

0

890

0

837

456

2,183

395

9.20

84.69*

39

New York

0

11,048

1

2,316

1,877

15,242

521

11.55

5.28

36

North Carolina

1,028

4

4,158

0

4,628

9,818

420

28.86

-5.99

49

North Dakota

0

3

0

59

52

114

2,724

29.55

-20.28

13

Ohio

0

12,137

0

8,707

8,801

29,645

171

-4.73

-11.71

29

Oklahoma

744

843

396

1,980

1,069

5,032

323

64.66*

22.02*

11

Oregon

108

2

7,033

0

3,175

10,318

156

7.09

76.59

34

Pennsylvania

1

4,961

0

5,232

3,973

14,167

387

7.16

15.48

26

Rhode Island

1

0

871

0

682

1,554

290

-6.33

-2.75

24

South Carolina

1

3,695

1

1,153

2,696

7,546

268

10.99

59.74

44

South Dakota

0

110

0

105

149

364

981

127.50

205.88

22

Tennessee

4

1

4,730

0

6,153

10,888

250

3.92

-9.09††

28

Texas

86

4

17,256

0

12,492

29,838

316

11.27

8.72

6

Utah

3,515

0

3,564

0

2,474

9,553

97

13.24

96.28

50

Vermont

2

1

7

0

52

62

5,023

342.86

169.57

16

Virginia

51

1

10,136

0

6,499

16,687

196

8.24

4.14†

23

Washington

0

0

6,142

0

4,233

10,375

264

-7.32

33.00

48

West Virginia

6

0

287

0

277

570

1,549

67.16*

356.00*

19

Wisconsin

1

5,899

0

2,661

2,620

11,181

229

11.17

105.16

46

Wyoming

1

0

86

0

130

217

1,117

-4.82

-14.90