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Some Predictions For The Year


The recent article on portfolio pricing left some readers feeling I didn't spell out some predictions enough.

For the sake of transparency, I wanted to post some short-term (less than 12 month predictions) to see how I perform for the remainder of the year.

Somewhere, Tetlock and Gardners' ears are burning.

After discussion with some readers, I'll use the following definitions largely borrowed from Sherman Kent (and try to keep similar verbiage in future articles) for predictions: 

Phrases and their approximate subjective probabilities

100% - Certain

93% (+/- 6%) - Almost certain

75% (+/- 12%) - Probable

50% (+/- 10%) - About even / coin flip

25% (+/- 12%) - Probably not / not likely

7% (+/- 6%) - Almost certainly not

0% - Impossible 

Predictions will be provided both initially and subsequently (counting as separate). I'll update as I find new information (similar to the process from the Good Judgement Project).

So, some predictions:

  • ~Almost certain (say 90%) Tesla debuts at least one lower priced variant (MR-base or premium standard range) of the Model 3 before getting to the $35K model
  • Probable (75%) they announce at least one cheaper variant before EOQ2; Update 2-28: with the order page temporarily halted until the 2PM announcement that has been teased, I'm upping this to 95%
  • Call it 60% they debut at least one variant in March (though may not be able to deliver before EOQ1); update 2-28L upping this to 90% that they show a cheaper variant by EOM March
  • Almost certain (95%+) they deliver between 50-80K S/X in 2019
  • Almost certain (95%) Tesla does not deliver Model 3 leasing to the public until Q1 2020 or later [edit: somewhat hysterically, within an hour of me posting this, an email leaked to employees suggesting Tesla would be implementing leasing within the next month or so. Will see if that holds true; my prediction was for the public market, so TBD on if this pertains specifically to employees or to the public]; prediction round 2: 25% probability that Tesla does not deliver Model 3 leasing to the public by Q2 2020
  • Almost certain (95%+)¬† Tesla does not successfully launch FSD for public use in 2019 (contrary Musk's claims)
  • (beyond 1 year, but whatever), Probable (80%) Tesla does not launch FSD in the US for public consumption by EOY 2020
  • Probable (75%) Tesla launches Level 3 autonomous driving by EOY 2019 for highway-only use (including speed-limited versions similar to Audi's TrafficJam Assist in Germany)
  • Very probable (85%) Tesla releases a domestically available $35K version for delivery before EOQ4; update 2-28: updating probability to 90%
  • ~90% probable Tesla receives at least 150K pre orders for Model Y within one week of reveal (assuming pre orders are allowed)

Will check back periodically to see how I've done!