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4/22/09 - Lunchtime

I am showing red flags everywhere on this counter-rally.  It's upward trendline is still intact, but if we break S&P 828 it could be a heck of a fall.  I posted a comment this morning that I felt today's range should fall between 830-860.  So far it is holding true.  I will be watching for a possible new falling trendline emerging if I see a late day sell off.  I show that the market hit a cycle high a few days ago and if I see the market closing weakly, that will confirm it.  Possible bets if that happens is to buy QID if the S&P breaks 828.  Another great gambit is to buy the May 700 S&P puts (now $1.90).  If the market falls hard, these could rocket to $10-$15.  That would be a great return.  I did this same play last fall and won big.