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Monday Update

General direction for next two days should be down.  Swine flu is a wild card in the market today.  This pandemic threat is being underestimated by the market.   The last pandemic - the Spanish flu caused incredible economic damage and (if I remember correct) over 60 million worldwide deaths.  The real affect on the markets could be eventual panic, but usually people underestimate its threat until it is too late.  After all it is just the flu - but the last pandemic flu had a death rate of 5% (1 in 20 died).  That is not small stuff.    My guess is the market tries to shrug this off, but over the next week the threat grows.  It should cause a retrenchment back to the 50 day MA over the few weeks (790 area).  As people eat in more and stay at home and avoid contact, we will see some reduction in spending. 

Expected range today is 780 to 750.  Look for a rally through morning, but I expect the market to close lower near the end of the day.  In these type events, as people get more info, they will seek to reduce positions going into the next day.