I began my coverage of Carlisle Companies (NYSE:CSL) on May 13, 2008 when the Dow closed at 12,832. My analysis of CSL may be a bit premature then, but I never give up on the stock. I revisit the stock again on April 2, 2009 and urged people to watch this stock closely and take a position at $18 or above $22. Sure enough, CSL broke above $22 and never look back. CSL closed today near $31 implying a 40% profit. I would like to revisit the charts of CSL so we can learn a thing or two about investing with help from charts and fundamentals.
Recap: I said to watch this stock and buy it near $18 or above $22
Recap: I bought the stock at $22.30. I also pointed out that underneath a trading range of 18 to 22, investors or institutions have been accumulating the stock. This is seen by the accumulation/distribution line below the price chart.
Recap: I sold the stock at $24 (8% profit) after holding it for 3 days! You can refer to the chart below where price hit $24.17 peak.
Recap: I re-entered at $21.80 as I have suggested on my previous blog "Although I closed my position, I will continue to monitor Carlisle closely and would like to re-purchase the stock near $22 or 2.8% yield (previous resistance)."
Recap: I actually sold my holding on June 5, 2009 at $24.54 and rolled that investment into another stock. I still have conviction in the name and did a check up on it.
Recap: I wrote about value and use CSL to compare to the Dow. Stock is still in great shape.
Today (July 23, 2009)
Carlisle reported their earning on July 22, 2009 and shares rose 13%. A follow-through today pushed the stock up close to $31. If you are holding on to the stock, I would suggest selling it and move your money into another undervalued name. Although the Dow Theory confirmation occurred today, the risk-reward has changed for CSL. Given my target entrance of $22, taking profit at $31 gives you a 40% gain excluding dividend. The chart below summarize the position.
How did I do compare to other? Let's compare Carlisle to Apple (AAPL), Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), the Dow, and S&P 500.
S&P 500 +14.16%
Even though BAC out performed CSL, CSL out performed everything else.
Worse case scenario
May 13, 2008 - You bought at $31, you would be breaking even or up fractionally (2.5%) because of the dividend. At the same time, if you buy the Dow index, you would be down 30%.
Carlisle has been in the dividend achiever list for 32 years, since 1977. Despite a crash in 1982, 2000, and 2008, it remains a high quality investment. Using technical analysis, I was able to make an educated guess that this stock has bottomed. Only time can tell if I am right. For now, I just gave you 40% profit.
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