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2011 Wind Guidance for APWR

|Includes: A-Power Energy Generation Systems Ltd. (APWR)

why dwell in the past when U have the ability to """LOOK FORWARD"" into the future for APWR going foward??  (NASDAQ:APWR) wind revenues for the END of 2011!

Without any of the ongoing DPG electric power plant models:::

Wind: Let’s assume that our wind production is limited to 33% of plant capacity for 2010. That equates to 99 2.7MW turbines, 148 750MW turbines, and we’ll say just 10 1.5MW turbines. We know the 2.7MW turbines will sell for about $4M each. I will assume the 750’s sell for $650K, and the 1.5MW sells for $1.8M (feel free to comment if you think I’m way off). Let’s further assume an 8% margin on these first generation turbines. Revenue comes out to $510 million. A profit of $40.8 million, or roughly $1 share when you figure in the new shares. At a PE of 15, the wind business for 2010 is worth $15/share. At a PE of 30 it’s worth $30/share. Only talking wind here.

Now lets look at 2011 when the wind business is at 100% capacity. 300 2.7MW’s, 300 750KW’s, 50 1.5MW’s (I assumed the 1.5MW’s would take away some of the projected 750 KW production). Revenue of $1.48 Billion. Assume margins increase to 9% and we have a profit of $133M, roughly $3.33/share. At a PE of 15 that’s $50/share or $100/share at a PE of 30. Again only speaking about wind. And for that matter not including any installation charges that we would get too. I have not included the GE gear box deal either.

Remarkable numbers. But what is astonishing is that this does not factor in any of their “core” business of DPG. If you just look at the Thailand and LNG projects, there is another $2-3 Billion in revenue spread across the next 2-3 years. Margins are much higher on those projects too. Just those 2 projects could generate $3.50/share for the next few years.

I was completely wrong on my prediction that APWR would be well above $30 by now. The only thing I’m wrong about is my timing. By 2011 this will be above $100/share and it may even get there in late 2010. I’ve never ever ever seen a stock with such explosive growth sell for such a discount. Really is a once in a lifetime opportunity.

My thanks to bigmwyfan2 for such great numbers and estimates!

OCT 29th:: Potential WIND FARM in Texas Contract Announced, 1.5 Billion Potential, 240 Wind Turbine potentials for 600MW Wind Farm in West Texas w/ Cielo Wind

Author is LONG APWR