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Confidence Level High for APWR Guidance for end of 2010

|Includes: A-Power Energy Generation Systems Ltd. (APWR)

Merry Christmas to all and I will spend today trying to explain the confidence levels for end of 2010 guidance.

My guidance is 670 million  based on a few assumptions and all in all, alot of swag guessing. I use the past year as an early estimate and believe APWR DPG biz will ramp very nicely into 2010. Given APWR 320 million for 2009 in one of the worst years ever since the depression, I look for APWR to ramp its DPG biz nicely into 2010. Landing a few more DPG contracts will make my 670 million estimate a reality in end of 2010.

Based on my numbers for DPG, you can see that wind does not have to ramp very well to achieve my 670 million. If wind actually does ramp in 2010, my numbers will be blown to a beautiful pile of crap which I would love to see since that means wind side actually does ramp. I only have to have 60 wind turbines shipped to make my numbers. Yes, 60 wind turbines! I expect APWR to ship at least a 100 units during 2010.

320 Million DPG x .50% ramp equals 480 Million.

50 wind units X 4 million equals 200 Million

+ or - some here or there and U end up with 670 Million.

70 Million Q1 2010
150 Million Q2 2010
200 Million Q3 2010
250 Million Q4 2010

Q1 2010, we must ship 4 wind units
Q2 2010, we must ship 10 wind units
Q3 2010, we must ship 20 wind units
Q4 2010, we must ship 20 wind units

so, as U can see, 54 wind units makes my numbers work along with a ramp in DPG..........

we dont have to reach for the stars to hit 670 million

Happy Holidays and let me know what U think

Author is LONG APWR

Disclosure: Author is Long APWR