Explanation of 670 Million Revenue for 2010
numbers can and always will change on won or approved contracts and wins
Now, the ”guidance”’ of APWR management will come in much lower and every wall streeter analayst will also have to come in MUCH MUCH lower than I will come in with initial results and estimates. Numbers and estimates can always be changed UP or DOWN depending on conditions and wins or losses over the year.
720 Million is my REALISTIC PREDICTION for the end of 2010. I like to look forward and if you check my 2009 calls and estimates, I was spot right on dead center + or – 3% on each and every quarter start to finish. When wall street was saying huge first and second quarter, I was predicting horrible quarters.
Now, the TIDE has turned and wall street will go with very cautious initial low ball estimates which is great for “”"LONG TERM INVESTORS”"” as every quarter , APWR will ””BEAT”’ Wall Street analysts low ball expectations and the stock price will move up over 2010 and continue to move up as more and more wins are awarded. The exponential move is coming for APWR share price over time.
Q1 2009 Revenue 31 Milllion……..Q1 2010 70 Million Estimate (upped Dec 28th to 90 million)
Q2 2009 Revenue 57 million………Q2 2010 150 Million Estimate (WIND RAMPS)
Q3 2009 Revenue 97 million………Q3 2010 200 Million Estimates
Q4 2009 Revenue 135 Million……..Q4 2010 250 Million Estimates
My totals make 670 Million with a 10% margin gives you a much higher stock price END OF 2010……….((added 20 Million Q1 2010 for wind side ramping to make 690 Million end of 2010)
Anything can and will change and everything is subject to change and upped or down quarters and estimates. And, this ESTIMATE includes the WEST TEXAS 1.5 Billion Wind Farm gets SIGNED and DONE by end of 2009.
Raymond James and Oppenhiemer, I know U must go LOW since U got ”burned”’ in 2009 but lets work together to achieve as close as estimates as this “”DIFFICULT”" company can and will provide over time!
My $19 Price Target for END of 2009 stands and my ””initial 2010 Price estimate is $38
DEC 22nd APWR announces 86 Million DPG Biomass for Thailand
DEC 27th, 2009 Wharton Boys giving Q1 2010 guidance of 107 million for Q1 2010 so that tells me WIND is going to ramp for Q1 so I am upping my Q1 and 2010 numbers by 20 Million UP. Q1 2010 now 90 million vs the Wharton boys 107 Million Q1 Estimate. My 2010 raised to 690 Million vs Wharton boys weak 580 Million 2010 Estimate. (((can Wind ramp in 2010 is the only question mark)
Price Target end of 2011 $58
Author is LONG on (NASDAQ:APWR)
Disclosure: Author is long apwr