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S&P Breaks Above Key Fibonacci Level -- A Retest of All-Time Highs Is In the Cards

|Includes: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)

 The S&P 500 continues is strong uptrend, trading above 1250 at the time of this writing. The monthly chart below illustrates. 

The chart shows the S&P has broken above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its big move down since 2007, and is now trading in a price channel. It is also above its 200 moving average

The daily chart (see below) also reveals a price channel, though it shows the market is nearing the top of the channel. Waiting for a pullback on the four hour or daily chart may be worthwhile for those looking to enter long but reluctant at this point given the current run up. 

On the bearish side, my friend tradermax shared the chart below comparing the VIX and the S&P on a blog entry. As the chart shows, a cyclical low in the VIX often signals a bearish move in the S&P. 

Fundamentally, continued increases in money supply that we previously discussed may also help asset prices stay higher, in my opinion.

What do you think? Feel free to share your questions and comments below.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.