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Where is the S&P 500 Headed?

|Includes: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY), SPY
Today, I wanted to review the S&P 500, looking back on the news that we've been covering to see if we can get a better idea of what the story is. 

1. First, I've been highlighting this chart from Steve Meyers. Note that the upper trendline was broken four times, but even still, when the apex was reached, we had the market break south out of it. 



2. We've also commented on sentiment indicators (here and here) which suggest a reversal. 

3. In terms of market cycles, we've looked at a number of views -- including one of this being a bull within a bear. Here's another recent post that referenced market cycles. 

4. This rally has been on a low volume, traditionally a bearish sign. See our previous post referencing the low volume rally. 

While I'm a permabear who believes in Austrian Business Cycle Theory and thus expects the market to lean towards liquidation of malinvestments unless there is regulatory intervention, the links above also cover how the IPO market in the US is heating up again, as well as numerous signs of inflation and the belief of many that a low volume rally can persist in this environment. 

What do you think?
 

Disclosure: No position.