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DAILY US OPENING NEWS - 15/12/11

 

·      A downbeat BoJ's Tankan report, together with a below 50 reading for HSBC Chinese manufacturing dampened sentiment during the Asian session

 

·      ECB's Draghi said intensified financial market tensions continue to dampen economic activity in the Euroarea and the outlook remains subject to high uncertainty

 

·      According to reports, the ECB is planning to introduce new capital rules for banks to prevent aggressive deleveraging and a credit crunch

 

·      The SNB kept its 3-month LIBOR target rate unchanged at 0.00% as expected, and said it will stick to its 1.2000 EUR/CHF floor

 

·      RANsquawk European Morning Briefing Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdoIlBZQfG0

 

Market Re-Cap

 

Overnight, Asian equities came under pressure following a downbeat BoJ's Tankan report, together with a below 50 reading for HSBC Chinese manufacturing, which also weighed on sentiment at the European open. Shares in Credit Agricole have underperformed compared to other banking stocks following a profit warning by the company after market yesterday. However, as the session progressed, equities re-gained strength following reports that the ECB is planning to introduce new capital rules for banks to prevent aggressive deleveraging and a credit crunch. Renewed strength in equities capped any advance in Bunds, while the Spanish/German 10-year government bond yield spread narrowed significantly moving into and after successful bond auctions from Spain. Meanwhile, Gilts came under pressure following a poorly performed conventional Gilt auction from the UK.

 

In the forex market, EUR/USD and GBP/USD lacked direction, however as the session progressed both pairs recovered on the back of a weakening USD-Index. Also, strength was observed in CHF across the board after the SNB said that it will stick to its 1.2000 EUR/CHF floor.

 

Moving into the North American open, markets look ahead to key economic data from the US in the form of jobless claims, Empire manufacturing, PPI, TIC flows, Philadelphia Fed as well as industrial production reports. In fixed income, Fed's Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase operation in the maturity range of Dec'17-Nov'19, with a purchase target of USD 4.25-5bln, together with USD 12bln 5-year TIPS auction are scheduled for later. Also, 2-, 5-, and 7-year Note refunding announcement from the US will be keenly watched.

 

Asian Headlines:

 

China may cut bank’s reserve requirement ratio 2-4 times from the end of this year through next year according to the Bank of Communications company research. (Shanghai Securities News)

 

·  Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4) Q/Q -4 vs. Exp. -2 (Prev. 2)

·  Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec) M/M 49.0 vs. Prev. 47.7 (RTRS)

 

GLOBAL

 

Fed’s Bernanke told Republican senators that the Fed can’t and won’t provide bailout funds to support European banks or nations, according to lawmakers. US Senator Graham said that Fed’s Bernanke told Republican lawmakers Fed does not have the intention or authority to bail out European banks or nations. (RTRS)

 

US Headlines

 

US President Obama and fellow Democrats signalled a willingness to drop a proposed surtax on millionaires, but remained at odds with Republicans in efforts to extend an expiring payroll tax cut for 160mln Americans. Also, US Republicans introduced USD 915bln spending bill to keep the US government operating through 2012. (RTRS)

 

In other news, bank seizures of US homes fell to their lowest level in nearly three years in November and fewer first-time default notices sent to homeowners according to a report by RealtyTrac. (RTRS)

 

EU and UK Headlines

 

ECB's Draghi said intensified financial market tensions continue to dampen economic activity in the Euroarea and the outlook remains subject to high uncertainty. He further said that present conditions weaken the impact of recent rate cut, adding that systemic risk is seriously hampering the economy. Draghi also said that the Euroarea will have a short term contraction. (RTRS)

 

Also, ECB Noyer said a downgrade of France’s AAA credit rating would not be justified and ratings agencies are making decisions based on politics than economics. (RTRS)

 

·  Eurozone CPI (Nov) Y/Y 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.0%)

·  Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Dec A) M/M 46.9 vs. Exp. 46.0 (Prev. 46.4)

·  German Manufacturing PMI (Dec A) M/M 48.1 vs. Exp. 47.5 (Prev. 47.9)

·  French Manufacturing PMI (Dec P) M/M 48.7 vs. Exp. 47.0 (Prev. 47.3)

·  UK Retail Sales (Nov) M/M -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 0.6%, Rev. 1.0%) (RTRS)

 

·  Spanish bond auction for EUR 2.45bln, 3.15% Jan'16, bid/cover 2.00 vs. Prev. 2.83 (yield 4.023% vs. Prev. 5.276%)

·  Spanish bond auction for EUR 2.18bln, 4.00% Apr'20, bid/cover 1.50 vs. Prev. 2.01 (yield 5.239% vs. Prev. 5.006%)

·  Spanish bond auction for EUR 1.4bln, 5.50% Apr'21, bid/cover 2.20 vs. Prev. 1.76 (yield 5.545% vs. Prev. 5.433%)

·  UK Conventional Gilt auction for GBP 4bln, 1.75% 2017 Gilt, bid/cover 1.27 vs. Prev. 1.66 (RTRS)

 

EQUITIES

 

Overnight, Asian equities came under pressure following a downbeat BoJ's Tankan report, together with a below 50 reading for HSBC Chinese manufacturing, which also weighed on sentiment at the European open. Shares in Credit Agricole have underperformed compared to other banking stocks following a profit warning by the company after market yesterday. However, as the session progressed, equities re-gained strength following reports that the ECB is planning to introduce new capital rules for banks to prevent aggressive deleveraging and a credit crunch. Moving into the North American open, European equities are trading in positive territory, with financials and healthcare as the best performing sectors.

 

**Note: For US equity news in detail, kindly refer to the RANsquawk Daily US Equity Opening News report.

 

Index

DAX

CAC

FTSE

EUROSTOXX

SMI

Level

5743.83

3004.23

5407.73

2227.08

5764.62

Change (ticks)

68.69

28.06

40.93

21.17

45.53

 

FX

 

EUR/USD and GBP/USD lacked direction, however as the session progressed both pairs recovered on the back of a weakening USD-Index. Also, strength was observed in CHF across the board after the SNB said that it will stick to its 1.2000 EUR/CHF floor.

 

Currency

EURUSD

GBPUSD

USDJPY

Level

1.3013

1.5517

77.85

Change (pips)

0.0030

0.0051

-0.2200

 

COMMMODITIES

 

WTI & Brent crude futures followed moves in European stock indices during the mixed European morning session, with the USD-Index trading near flat on the session.

 

Oil & Gas News:

·  Saudi Arabia won’t compensate for any potential decline in Iranian oil supply if the Persian country comes under sanctions affecting its exports of crude according to the Iranian oil minister.

·  Shipping traffic through Turkey’s Bosporus strait was halted at 7:58am local time (GMT+2) after an anchor malfunction on a ship according to GAC Shipping Turkey. Transit is scheduled to resume at 12pm local time.

 

Geopolitical News:

·  The US deputy energy secretary said the US is to work with partners to ensure the global oil market remains well supplied, and said the US is in consultation with all parties including China on new sanctions against Iran.

·  Iran announced that it had completed the transfer of its nuclear facilities underground, including its uranium enrichment centrifuges, and that the Iranian nuclear program was now safe from US and Israeli attack.

 

Corporate News:

·  Chevron and Transocean were asked to suspend all activity in Brazil by prosecutors, and Chevron ordered to pay USD 10.7bln in damages. In other news Chevron has made a gas discovery off Western Australia, marking the company's twelfth offshore discovery in Australia since mid-2009. The discovery was in the Vos-1 permit area which Chevron jointly owns with Royal Dutch Shell.

 

**Note: For commodities news in detail, kindly refer to the RANsquawk Daily Energy Commentary report.

 

Commodity

WTI Nymex

OTC Spot Gold

Level

95.68

1593.32

Change (NYSEARCA:USD)

0.73

19.27

 

LOOKING AHEAD

 

Economic Releases

 

CST

GMT

 

DATA

EXP

PREV

0730

1330

US

Initial Jobless Claims W/W (Dec 10)

390K

381K

0730

1330

US

Continuing Claims W/W (Dec 3)

3633K

3583K

0730

1330

US

Empire Manufacturing M/M (Dec)

3.00

0.61

0730

1330

US

PPI M/M (Nov)

0.2%

-0.3%

0730

1330

US

PPI Y/Y (Nov)

5.9%

5.9%

0730

1330

US

PPI ex-Food & Energy M/M (Nov)

0.2%

0.0%

0730

1330

US

PPI ex-Food & Energy Y/Y (Nov)

2.9%

2.8%

0730

1330

US

Current Account Balance (USD) Q/Q (Q3)

-108.5B

-118.0B

0730

1330

CA

Capacity Utilisation Rate Q/Q (Q3)

79.0%

78.4%

0800

1400

US

Net Long-Term TIC Flows (USD) M/M (Oct)

62.5B

68.6B

0800

1400

US

Total Net TIC Flows (USD) M/M (Oct)

 

57.4B

0815

1415

US

Industrial Production M/M (Nov)

0.1%

0.7%

0815

1415

US

Capacity Utilisation M/M (Nov)

77.8%

77.8%

0900

1500

US

Philadelphia Fed M/M (Dec)

5.0

3.6

0930

1530

US

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change W/W (Dec)

-88

-20

 

Speaker

0700

1300

EU

Russia’s President Medvedev Meets With EU Officials in Brussels

0845

1445

WLD

IMF’s Lagarde

1150

1750

EU

EU’s Barroso

1420

2020

US

Fed’s Lockhart (Non Voting Member)

N/A

N/A

GR

Greek PM Papademos Meets Troika Representatives

 

Auctions

1000

1600

US

Fed’s Outright Trea. Coup.  Purch. Dec’17-Nov’19 (USD 4.25-5bln)

1000

1600

UK

BoE Confirms Details of Following Week’s APF Operations

1000

1600

US

2-, 5- & 7-year Note Refunding Announcement

1200

1800

US

USD 12bln 5y TIPS Auction

 

Earnings

US

Accenture, Adobe, FedEx, Research In Motion

 

**Note:

WTI Crude January options Expiry (1930GMT/1330CST)

SMI December Options Expiry (1620GMT/1020CST)

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 December options and futures expiry (2115GMT/1515CST)

 

Prices taken at 1237GMT

 

 

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‘Market talk’ – Signifies information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels and therefore is to be treated as unsubstantiated. Any interpretation of the talk is taken at the readers own risk and is a representation of the rumours within the market place and never generated by ourselves.

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