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Stocks Are Trying To Break Out On July 6

Jul. 06, 2020 8:19 AM ETiShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI), QQQ, SPY, SQ, TSLA, UBER
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Growth, Long/Short Equity, Momentum, Macro

Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2014

I am Michael Kramer, the founder of Mott Capital Management and creator of Reading The Markets, an SA Marketplace service. I focus on long-only macro themes and trends, look for long-term thematic growth investments, and use options data to find unusual activity.

I use my over 25 years of experience as a buy-side trader, analyst, and portfolio manager, to explain the twists and turns of the stock market and where it may be heading next. Additionally, I use data from top vendors to formulate my analysis, including sell-side analyst estimates and research, newsfeeds, in-depth options data, and gamma levels. 

July 6, 2020



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S&P 500 (SPY)

Stocks are advancing on July 6, moving to the top end of their recent trading range as they attempt to break free of what's been a hard-fought battle at resistance levels around 3150 on the S&P 500.

Currently, the futures are trading around 3164, which is the highest level the futures have traded at since June 11. The big question is if we can close above these levels. A close at the current levels or higher would be a big win for the bull and suggest there is some further upside in this market, with the next significant level not coming until 3,195.

We get the ISM non-manufacturing report at 10 am, and that is a very big readout, considering the economy is about 80% services.


The Qs are also rising today and pushing towards the upper end of their trading range to what could be a new high. The only thing I will note is that every time we reach this top end of the trading channel, we generally see a drawdown to the lower end of the channel. The channel remains perfectly intact.


Copper prices continue to melt-higher and have seen minimal interruption. Copper may be the most critical indicator to watch as the weeks begins.

Shanghai (FXI)

Shanghai had a powerful trading session rising nearly 6%, which is helping to fuel the global rally. A jump beyond 3,350 pushes the index up to 3,495.

Square (SQ)

Square received a price target boost today at Suntrust, which increased its price target to $150 from $83. The stock is trading at the upper end of the channel, and I saw some bearish betting last week, which indicates the stock falls below $100, but not until after the company report results. So we can watch and see if it jumps above $118.


Uber is rising today on reports it is going to by Postmates for $2.65 billion in a stock deal. I'm surprised the stock is trading higher today because the deal would be dilutive to Uber holders as an all-stock deal. Also, I wonder what this means about Uber's future? Is this a company that is now focusing on food delivery and slowly shifting away from ride-sharing. The $33.15 is a big level of resistance for the stock. If it can advance beyond that price, then it has room to run to $35.90.

Tesla (TSLA)

Tesla is rising this morning after JMP raised its price target to $1,500 from 1,050. Now all the attention will shift to the second-quarter results and whether the company can turn a profit and get S&P 500 inclusion in the process. I reduced my holdings in Tesla last week a bit, taking some profits. I have held the stock for the past six years, and it became my largest holding by a too wide of a margin. I'm still very long, though...Testing Resistance/Reducing Tesla -Midday

That will be all.


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