Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

The Fear Trade May Be In Full Effect

Jul. 27, 2020 7:17 AM ETApple Inc. (AAPL), AMZN, FXE, FXY, GLD, IEF, ILMN, REGN, SGEN, VRTX4 Comments
Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

July 27, 2020



Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – $35/Month or $300/Year



Stocks are rising this morning, and for now, it is looking good. I just wonder if it can last. The S&P 500 ETF, SPY, is up 35 basis points, while the QQQ ETF is up about 70 basis points. But yields and dollar are falling, and the gold is rising. These aren't typically bullish signals, not to mention Tencent was weaker again overnight in HK. (Mike's RTM Premium Content - It’s All About The Risk-On Trade – The Look At The Week Ahead)

Euro (FXE)

The EURO is at a massive level, as well as the YEN. The chart below shows that euro is on the cusp of a significant breakout. This chart goes back to the year 2000, and either the euro is about to go lower to the other end of the triangle at 1.08, or it about to break out of a 20-year trading pattern. A move above 1.18, sends the euro quickly to 1.20 and possibly to 1.24 to the dollar.

Yen (FXY)

Meanwhile, the yen is strengthen against the dollar, to its strongest level since March.

Gold (GLD)

The weaker dollar is helping to send gold prices higher to a record high. The RSI on gold is way overbought, so it doesn't necessarily signal a pullback yet, but perhaps the advance either slows or consolidates sideways.


Meanwhile, the significant risk-on trade in copper is flat on the day despite the big break down in the dollar. We can see that the considerable uptrend in copper is now shattered.

10-Year (IEF)

Meanwhile, the 10-year continues to move closer to breaking below 55 bps.

Inflation or Fear?

Again, the big move higher in gold and silver, should not be confused with worries over inflation. It is part of a fear trade. We are not seeing metals such as nickel, copper, zinc, iron-ore, platinum, palladium moving up at the same velocity, or to the same record levels. These are the significant industrial metals. They tell you more about inflation than gold and silver. I studied this topic in great detail the last time we went through this in 2009 and 2010.

Tencent (700HK)

Meanwhile, Tencent, 700HK, fell overnight, after starting the day higher. The stock is very close to breaking down in a big way.

Amazon (AMZN)

Why do we care about Tencent? Because as Tencent goes, so too does Amazon. Again, this speaks to tech-based global trade; it is not just a US-based trade.

Apple (AAPL)

Apple will be the most critical stock to watch today, as the stock broke the significant uptrend last week, and if the global market is selling big tech right now, then Apple may be a victim. Apple will very much tell us what the mood of the market is when regular trading resumes.

Regeneron (REGN)

Regeneron is one of the big biotech stocks that need to be watched. The stock broke an uptrend last week and could hold a clue for the direction of the group. The RSI is clearly pointing lower.

Vertex (VRTX)

Meanwhile, Vertex is very close to breaking a significant uptrend as well.

Illumina (ILMN)

Meanwhile, Illumina finds itself in the same spot.

Seattle Genetics (SGEN)

As is Seattle Genetics.


Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

Related Stocks

SymbolLast Price% Chg
Apple Inc.
Amazon.com, Inc.
Invesco CurrencyShares® Euro Currency Trust ETF
Invesco CurrencyShares® Japanese Yen Trust ETF
SPDR® Gold Shares ETF
To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.