MARCH 9, 2021
STOCKS – DOCU, NVDA, AMZN
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- Video: Today's Rally Not Likely To Last
- Midday Note- Not Believing In Today's Rally
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- Video: The Fundamentals Of The Stock Market Have Changed
- Midday – Today’s Rally Isn’t Likely To Hold
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- T.W.A – Trouble Lies Beneath The Surface
- The Fed Is Likely To Remain On Hold At Its March Meeting
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Stocks had a great day, with the S&P 500 climbing by 1.4% and the Qs climbing by almost 4%. Very strange to see, especially after the selling witnessed on Monday. In fact, today's move higher, I expected on Monday. But it happened none-the-less.
This really started overnight in Asia, when it seemed the Chinese communist party was not pleased with the weak price action in their markets. That put a bid in Asian stocks, and well, S&P 500 futures spiked as well, and it seems to have just carried over.
The index struggled at 3,900 all day, and it proved to be too much for the time being. A big sell imbalance on the close, more than $3 billion, pushed the index about 60 bps off its highs.
S&P 500 (SPY)
A lot of what happens next will be dependent upon CPI data tomorrow morning. If the data is hotter than expected, it could easily wipe out many of today's big gains. It would not surprise me for the index to give most of these gains away over the next few days and close the gap from this morning's move higher.
The trend in rates is higher for now, but a breakdown could give the S&P 500 and technology stocks some relief, sending the equity market even higher. If CPI comes in hot, the 10-year would likely overtake 1.6%. There is the possibility of an ascending triangle forming, which would suggest yields move higher. But we won't know until tomorrow.
Nvidia had a strong day, coming back from oversold conditions. The stock reached a level around 30 on the RSI and fell below its lower Bollinger band yesterday. Based on that, there could be a little bit higher to climb, perhaps back to $520.
Amazon had a strong day too, but couldn't manage to make it past resistance at a price around 3,070. The stock isn't as oversold as others, so it may not have much further room to run.
DocuSign is another stock that could have a bit further to climb, perhaps back to $226.
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