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Growth, Long/Short Equity, Momentum, Macro

Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2014

I am Michael Kramer, the founder of Mott Capital Management and creator of Reading The Markets, an SA Marketplace service. I focus on long-only macro themes and trends, look for long-term thematic growth investments, and use options data to find unusual activity.

I use my over 25 years of experience as a buy-side trader, analyst, and portfolio manager, to explain the twists and turns of the stock market and where it may be heading next. Additionally, I use data from top vendors to formulate my analysis, including sell-side analyst estimates and research, newsfeeds, in-depth options data, and gamma levels. 

MARCH 31, 2021



Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – FREE 2-WEEK TRIAL

It was a buyers market on March 31, quite literally, with sellers absent until the final 30 minutes. Volumes across the market were very light, with the Qs and S&P e-minis trading with volumes well below the norm. There was quite literally an absence of sellers. Once the sellers showed up at the end of the day, the S&P 500 and Q dropped about 50 bps, with the S&P 500 giving-up more than half of its gains, rather fast, due to a massive $5.5 billion sell imbalance on the closing cross. It seemed the sellers were waiting for the end of the day.

The first day of the month has been a good one for equities since November, and except for January, every month's first day has seen a rally. Tomorrow could be different for a few reasons: first, because we get the ISM data at 10 AM, and second because the market is closed on Friday, but the BLS job report will still be released.

A potential breakdown in the S&P 500 isn't dead. The index did hit the upper trend line today, and that is where it failed. At this point, we could incur a few extra days of sideways trading if these levels hold or trade higher. However, the rising trendline off the March 2020 lows is the index's biggest threat.

Square (SQ)

It was a good day for Square, but not good enough. The stock stalled and failed at resistance on the downtrend. The RSI still looks decent, so maybe the downtrend will lose.

Disney (DIS)

Disney fell through the uptrend, and now it sits on support at $184.50. A break of support would send it down to $158. The RSI has been trending lower for a long-time and confirms a lower pattern.

Nike (NKE)

Nike has struggled around the $145 level for a while. It nearly broke support at $131 but managed to snap back quickly. Probably suggesting the stock heads higher and test $145 one more time; we should know once it reaches $137.

Ok, well that's all. There may not be another write-up until Monday. I will try before, but I am really looking forward to doing as little thinking as possible in the next few days.


Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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