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Latest Round Of Weak U.S. Data Augurs Further Delay In QE Taper

Pending home sales, details of industrial production, Dallas Fed manufacturing index disappoint.

• Disappointing growth data suggests downside surprise for Fed's Sept. expectation that "economic growth will pick up"

• Home sales, industrial production for Sept. predate govt shutdown, while Dallas Fed. for Oct. covers shutdown period

• Pending home sales -5.6% vs est. 0.0%; worst decline since 2010, 11th-worst in data to 2001; 4th consecutive decline

• Downtrend accelerating; M/m, 12-MMA -0.06%, lowest since Apr. 2011

• Weakness widespread: Northeast -9.6%, Midwest -8.3%, West -9.0%, South -0.4%

• Ind. prod. details weak

• Mfg production +0.1%, mfg net of autos 0.0%

• Utilities +4.4%

• Overall ind. prod. 0.6%m/m vs est. 0.4%; remains in downtrend since early 2012

• Dallas Fed 3.6 vs est. 10.0, low since May

• Cyclical lows holding steady around -16, cyclical highs falling since 2010

• 6-mos ahead outlook 8.1 from 13.3, low since May

• NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.